Innovation ecosystems and the pace of substitution: Re-examining technology S-curves
Innovation ecosystems and the pace of substitution: Re-examining technology S-curves
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DOI：
10.1002/smj.2363
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发表时间：
2016-04-01
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Kapoor, Rahul
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adner, Ron;Kapoor, Rahul
为什么一些新技术涌现并迅速取代现有技术，而另一些技术则需要数年或数十年才能起飞？我们通过提出一个框架来探讨这个问题，该框架既考虑了重点竞争技术，也考虑了它们所嵌入的生态系统。在我们的框架内，技术转型的每一阶段都以新技术面临的生态系统出现挑战和旧技术可用的生态系统扩展机会为特征。我们确定了四个性质截然不同的制度，并对替代的速度做出了明确的预测。1972年至2009年半导体光刻设备行业10次技术转型的证据为我们的框架提供了强有力的支持。我们讨论了我们的方法对企业战略的影响。版权所有(C)2015 John Wiley&Sons，Ltd.
Why do some new technologies emerge and quickly supplant incumbent technologies while others take years or decades to take off? We explore this question by presenting a framework that considers both the focal competing technologies as well as the ecosystems in which they are embedded. Within our framework, each episode of technology transition is characterized by the ecosystem emergence challenge that confronts the new technology and the ecosystem extension opportunity that is available to the old technology. We identify four qualitatively distinct regimes with clear predictions for the pace of substitution. Evidence from 10 episodes of technology transitions in the semiconductor lithography equipment industry from 1972 to 2009 offers strong support for our framework. We discuss the implication of our approach for firm strategy. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.