Geographical adaptation prevails over species-specific determinism in trees' vulnerability to climate change at Mediterranean rear-edge forests
Geographical adaptation prevails over species-specific determinism in trees' vulnerability to climate change at Mediterranean rear-edge forests
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.14544
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发表时间：
2019-04-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Menzel, Annette
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dorado-Linan, Isabel;Piovesan, Gianluca;Menzel, Annette
气候变化可能会减少森林生长并增加森林死亡率，这与初级生产总值和净生态系统交换减少而导致的高碳成本有关。然而，在物种对干旱的耐受力范围内，对短期极端事件和逐渐环境变化的脆弱性的时空模式是相当不确定的。这些信息对于确定物种耐旱性的生态相关上限至关重要，因此可以预测森林死亡率增加和物种组成变化的风险。我们在这里调查了短期和长期环境变化的影响在多大程度上决定了地中海盆地分布最南端的三种常绿针叶树（欧洲赤松、银冷杉、挪威云杉）和两种落叶硬木（欧洲山毛榉、无柄橡树）树种对气候变化的脆弱性。最后，我们使用多物种广义线性混合模型模拟了 RCP 2.6 和 8.5 排放情景下的未来森林生长。我们的分析为物种对气候变化的脆弱性模式提供了四个关键见解。首先，地点气候边际性与增长趋势显着相关：增长的增加与气候限制较少的地点有关。其次，估计的物种特定脆弱性与它们在耐旱性方面的先验排名不符：赤松和山毛榉似乎是所研究的物种中最脆弱的物种，尽管它们的生理学特征截然不同。第三，在森林应对气候变化方面，对立地条件的适应胜过物种特异性决定论。第四，整个地中海盆地森林对气候变化脆弱性的区域差异与夏季大气环流模式的影响有关，而全球气候模型并未正确体现这种影响。因此，森林绩效的预测应重新考虑功能类型中树种的传统分类，并严格评估全球气候模型生成的气候数据的细尺度局限性。
Climate change may reduce forest growth and increase forest mortality, which is connected to high carbon costs through reductions in gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns of vulnerability to both short-term extreme events and gradual environmental changes are quite uncertain across the species' limits of tolerance to dryness. Such information is fundamental for defining ecologically relevant upper limits of species tolerance to drought and, hence, to predict the risk of increased forest mortality and shifts in species composition. We investigate here to what extent the impact of short- and long-term environmental changes determines vulnerability to climate change of three evergreen conifers (Scots pine, silver fir, Norway spruce) and two deciduous hardwoods (European beech, sessile oak) tree species at their southernmost limits of distribution in the Mediterranean Basin. Finally, we simulated future forest growth under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios using a multispecies generalized linear mixed model. Our analysis provides four key insights into the patterns of species' vulnerability to climate change. First, site climatic marginality was significantly linked to the growth trends: increasing growth was related to less climatically limited sites. Second, estimated species-specific vulnerability did not match their a priori rank in drought tolerance: Scots pine and beech seem to be the most vulnerable species among those studied despite their contrasting physiologies. Third, adaptation to site conditions prevails over species-specific determinism in forest response to climate change. And fourth, regional differences in forests vulnerability to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin are linked to the influence of summer atmospheric circulation patterns, which are not correctly represented in global climate models. Thus, projections of forest performance should reconsider the traditional classification of tree species in functional types and critically evaluate the fine-scale limitations of the climate data generated by global climate models.