Local risk perception enhances epidemic control
Local risk perception enhances epidemic control
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0225576
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发表时间：
2019-12-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Meyers, Lauren Ancel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Herrera-Diestra, Jose L.;Meyers, Lauren Ancel
随着传染病爆发，公共卫生机构经常制定疫苗接种和社会疏远措施以减缓传播。它们的成功不仅取决于战略和资源，还取决于公众的拥护。个人采取预防措施的意愿可能会受到新闻媒体等全球因素或受感染的家人或朋友等当地因素的影响。在这里，我们使用基于网络的数学模型来比较在疫情日益严重的情况下流行病学决策的三种模式，这些模型捕捉了人类接触模式中可能存在的异质性。个人根据总体疾病患病率、受感染的社会接触者比例或受感染的社会接触者数量来决定是否采取推荐的干预措施。虽然所有策略都可以大大减轻传播，但根据受感染的熟人数量进行疫苗接种（或自我隔离）预计可以预防最多的感染，同时需要最少的干预资源。与其他策略不同，它具有显着的羊群效应，为很大一部分人口提供间接保护。
As infectious disease outbreaks emerge, public health agencies often enact vaccination and social distancing measures to slow transmission. Their success depends on not only strategies and resources, but also public adherence. Individual willingness to take precautions may be influenced by global factors, such as news media, or local factors, such as infected family members or friends. Here, we compare three modes of epidemiological decision-making in the midst of a growing outbreak using network-based mathematical models that capture plausible heterogeneity in human contact patterns. Individuals decide whether to adopt a recommended intervention based on overall disease prevalence, the proportion of social contacts infected, or the number of social contacts infected. While all strategies can substantially mitigate transmission, vaccinating (or self isolating) based on the number of infected acquaintances is expected to prevent the most infections while requiring the fewest intervention resources. Unlike the other strategies, it has a substantial herd effect, providing indirect protection to a large fraction of the population.