Monetary Policy and Shifts in Long Run Productivity Growth ∗
Monetary Policy and Shifts in Long Run Productivity Growth ∗
复制标题
货币政策和长期生产率增长的转变*
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
John C. Williams
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rochelle M. Edge;Thomas Laubach;John C. Williams
20世纪70年代的生产率下降和90年代后期的生产率上升给货币政策制定者带来了严峻的挑战。生产率下降被认为是造成20世纪70年代滞胀的原因，即同期的增长停滞、高失业率和高通胀，而生产率加速同样被认为是推动了20世纪90年代末的反通胀繁荣。在这两种情况下，货币政策被认为在决定经济对长期增长转变的反应方面发挥了重要作用。虽然有大量研究记录了这些事件，但令人惊讶的是，对于生产率增长率变化的适当货币政策反应，却很少有正式的分析。直觉上，很明显，政策应该以某种方式“适应”诸如此类的供应冲击，但问题是，这对利率的设定意味着什么？特别是，真实的利率--它最终将与生产率增长率的变化同向变动--应该随着技术冲击而上升还是下降，货币政策对真实的和名义变量的演变有多大影响？货币政策制定者面临的另一个挑战是难以确定生产率增长率在真实的时间内的变化。在本文中，我们研究了长期多要素生产率（MFP）增长率变化的影响（以及适当的政策应对），在此过程中，我们认识到重要的实际考虑，即MFP增长的潜在增长率在真实的时间内是不可观测的，因此必须从现有数据中推断出来。我们使用Edge，Laubach，and威廉姆斯（2003）开发和估计的两部门DGE模型进行货币政策分析，并在此进行修改，以考虑趋势生产率增长的持续变化。该模型纳入了消费习惯的形成，投资调整成本，可变的产能利用率，粘性工资和价格，以及关于生产率增长冲击持久性的不完善信息。我们发现，长期生产率增长率的变化对真实的经济和通货膨胀具有相当大的和高度持久的影响。此外，这些反应，特别是就业和通货膨胀的反应，对货币政策的具体说明很敏感。后一种结果与使用程式化的新凯恩斯主义模型发现的结果形成对比，在新凯恩斯主义模型中，对增长率冲击的反应对特定的政策规范相对不敏感。
The productivity slowdown in the 1970s and the speedup in the late 1990s presented difficult challenges to monetary policymakers. The productivity slowdown has been blamed for the 1970s stagflation episode—contemporaneous stagnant growth, high unemployment, and high inflation—while the productivity acceleration has similarly been credited with powering the disinflationary boom of the late 1990s. In both cases, monetary policy is believed to have been important in determining the economy’s response to the shift in long-run growth. Although there has been a great deal of study documenting these events, there has been surprisingly little formal analysis of the appropriate monetary policy response to shifts in the growth rate of productivity. Intuitively, it is clear that policy should somehow “accommodate” supply shocks such as these, but the question is, what does that imply for the setting of interest rates? In particular, should real interest rates—which will eventually move in the same direction as the change in the rate of productivity growth—rise or fall in response to technology shocks and how much does monetary policy matter for the evolution of real and nominal variables? A further challenge for monetary policy makers arises from the difficulty in identifying in real time shifts in the growth rate of productivity. In this paper, we examine the effects of (and appropriate policy response to) shifts in the growth rate of long-run multifactor productivity (MFP), where in doing so we recognize the important practical consideration that the underlying growth rate in MFP growth is unobservable in real time and must therefore be inferred from available data. We conduct our monetary policy analysis using the two-sector DGE model developed and estimated in Edge, Laubach, and Williams (2003), and modified here to allow for persistent changes in trend productivity growth. The model incorporates habit formation in consumption, investment adjustment costs, variable capacity utilization, sticky wages and prices, and imperfect information regarding the permanence of shocks to productivity growth. We find that shifts in the long-run productivity growth rate have sizable and highly persistent effects on the real economy and inflation. In addition, these responses, particularly those of employment and inflation, are sensitive to the specification of monetary policy. This latter result contrasts with that found using stylized New Keynesian models, in which the response to growth rate shocks is relatively insensitive to the particular specification of policy.