Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models
Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models
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DOI：
10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y
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发表时间：
2021-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
23.2
通讯作者：
Rosenzweig, Cynthia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jagermeyr, Jonas;Mueller, Christoph;Rosenzweig, Cynthia
气候对未来作物产量的潜在影响是一个重大的社会问题。农业模型相互比较和改进项目的全球网格作物模型相互比较以前的预测是在耦合模型相互比较项目第5阶段的基础上进行的，确定了对所有主要作物的重大气候影响，但相关的不确定性很大。在这里，我们报告新的21世纪世纪的预测使用最新一代的作物和气候模型的合奏。结果表明，玉米，大豆和水稻的产量反应显着更悲观的原始合奏相比。世纪末的平均玉米生产力从+5%变为-6%（SSP 126），从+1%变为-24%（SSP 585）--这可以通过气候变暖预测和作物模型敏感性提高来解释。相比之下，小麦表现出更强的收益（从+9%变为+18%，SSP 585），这与更高的CO2浓度和扩大的高纬度收益有关。在新的预测中，气候影响的“出现”一直发生在2040年之前，对于几个主要产区来说。虽然未来的产量估计仍然不确定，这些结果表明，主要粮仓地区将面临明显的人为气候风险早于先前的预期。利用最新一代作物和气候模型的集合，对主要作物进行了新的系统性全球农业产量预测。由于气候变化，全球作物生产力将在未来20年内发生重大变化，比以前的预测早几十年，这突出表明在未来几十年内需要有针对性的粮食系统适应和风险管理。
Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.Climate change affects agricultural productivity. New systematic global agricultural yield projections of the major crops were conducted using ensembles of the latest generation of crop and climate models. Substantial shifts in global crop productivity due to climate change will occur within the next 20 years-several decades sooner than previous projections-highlighting the need for targeted food system adaptation and risk management in the coming decades.