The Perception of Climate Sensitivity: Revealing Priors From Posteriors
The Perception of Climate Sensitivity: Revealing Priors From Posteriors
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3748883
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发表时间：
2020-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Masako Ikefuji;J. Magnus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Masako Ikefuji;J. Magnus
贝叶斯通常使用数据和先验来生成后验。在实践中，经常观察到数据和后验，而不是先验。我们将遵循相反的路线，使用数据和后验信息来揭示先验信息。然后，我们将这一理论应用于政府间气候变化专门委员会报告的（平衡）气候敏感性，试图深入了解他们之前的信念。看来IPCC科学家们已经先验地同意了3到4摄氏度之间的气候平衡值，同时判断真正灾难发生的可能性比之前报告预测的要大得多。
A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. In practice, the data and the posterior are often observed but not the prior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to (equilibrium) climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into their prior beliefs. It appears that the IPCC scientists have agreed a priori on a value for the climate equilibrium between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius, while judging the occurrence of a real disaster much more likely than the previous report predicts.