Exports, Exchange Rates and Productivity: An Analysis of the Japanese Manufacturing Sectors
Exports, Exchange Rates and Productivity: An Analysis of the Japanese Manufacturing Sectors
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DOI：
10.26417/ejes.v6i1.p7-17
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发表时间：
2016-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Atsuyuki Kato
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Atsuyuki Kato
本文考察了汇率变化和生产率对制造业出口的影响。本研究使用2002 - 2012年日本制造业企业的数据，探讨汇率变动是否会阻碍出口活动，以及生产率和加价差异是否会影响出口活动。在本研究中，我们使用基于生产函数的方法估算企业的单位生产率和加价，并将其纳入Heckman样本选择模型。研究结果表明，汇率是影响企业层面出口的重要因素，但应仔细考虑时间聚集。此外，本研究还发现，生产率和加价给企业层面的出口不同行业的影响。在运输设备行业，升值对出口的负面影响因生产率提高而部分缓解。加价与电子行业的出口正相关，而与运输设备的出口负相关。机械行业的生产率和利润率都没有吸收汇率变化的影响。这些发现意味着，汇率的稳定是非常重要的，而有效的贸易政策可能会因行业而异，其贸易结构。
This paper examines the effects of exchange rate changes and productivity on manufacturing exports. Using the dataset of the Japanese manufacturing firms during the period, 2002 – 2012, we discuss if exchange rate fluctuations deter export activities and if productivity and markup differences affect it. For this study, we estimate both firm specific productivity and markups by the production function based approaches and incorporate them into the Heckman sample selection model. Our results show exchange rates are important factors to affect firm-level exports as a whole while temporal aggregation should be carefully considered. In addition, this study also reveals that productivity and markup give different impacts on firm-level exports across industries. In the transportation equipment industry, negative effects of appreciation on exports are partly mitigated by higher productivity. Markups are positively related to exports in the electronics industry while negative in the transportation equipment. Neither productivity nor markup absorbs the impact of exchange rate changes in the machinery industry. Those findings imply that stability of exchange rates is very important while the effective trade policy may vary across industries following their trade structure.