The Role of Initial Uncertainties in Predicion
The Role of Initial Uncertainties in Predicion
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初始不确定性在预测中的作用
DOI：
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发表时间：
1969
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. S. Epstein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. S. Epstein
摘要当预测方程的初始值或参数不确定时，其解也必然存在误差。初始条件可以用一个集合来表示，集合中的每个成员都与所有可用的知识一致。这个集合的均值是预测方程的合理的“最佳”解。继Gleeson之后，我们对几个简单方程的预测误差行为进行了检查，用集合成员与平均值的均方根偏差表示。我们进一步研究了集合均值的时间依赖行为，而不是通过将预测方程应用于原始均值而获得的解。总的来说，它们是不同的。结论是，预测的最佳程序，即求解预测方程，需要在方程中包含表示初始不确定性影响的项。由于这些不确定性的性质也可能对……产生深远的影响。
Abstract When the initial values, or the parameters, of prognostic equations are not known with certainty, there must also be errors in the solution. The initial conditions may be represented by an ensemble, each member of which is consistent with all available knowledge. The mean of this ensemble is a reasonable "best" solution to the prognostic equation. Following Gleeson, we have examined the behavior of the error in the forecast, as represented by the rms deviation of the ensemble members from their mean, for a few simple equations. We have further examined the time-dependent behavior of the ensemble mean, as opposed to the solution obtained by applying the prognostic equation to the original mean values. These are, in general, different. It is concluded that optimum procedures for forecasting, i.e., solving prognostic equations, require includingterms in the equations to represent the influence of the initial uncertainties. Since the nature of these uncertainties may also have profound influences on ...