A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validation
A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validation
复制标题
1500-1990 年欧洲区域气候古模拟 – 第 1 部分：模型验证
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Zorita
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. J. Gómez;J. Montávez;S. Wagner;E. Zorita
抽象的。我们提出并分析了 1500 年至 1990 年期间涵盖欧洲地区的高分辨率区域气候古模拟。我们使用由全局模型 ECHO-G 在边界驱动的区域模型 MM5。这两个模型都受到三个外部因素的重建的影响：温室气体浓度、太阳总辐照度和火山活动。最近一段时间通过将模型结果与气候研究单位（CRU）数据库进行比较来评估模拟技能。结果表明，区域模型虽然受到边界条件的严格驱动，但能够提高模拟的可靠性，缩小与观测的差异，特别是在地形复杂的地区。此外，还分析了过去五个世纪温度和降水空间分布的演变，表明温度平均值反映了外部强迫的影响。然而，与气候变化情景条件下的结果相反，季节气温和降水的高阶动量几乎不受外强迫变化的影响。
Abstract. We present and analyse a high-resolution regional climate palaeosimulation encompassing the European region for the period 1500–1990. We use the regional model MM5 driven at the boundaries by the global model ECHO-G. Both models are forced by reconstructions of three external factors: greenhouse gas concentrations, total solar irradiance and volcanic activity. The simulation skill is assessed in a recent period by comparing the model results with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) database. The results show that although the regional model is tightly driven by the boundary conditions, it is able to improve the reliability of the simulations, narrowing the differences to the observations, especially in areas of complex topography. Additionally, the evolution of the spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation through the last five centuries is analysed, showing that the mean values of temperature reflects the influence of the external forcings. However, contrary to the results obtained under climate change scenario conditions, higher-order momenta of seasonal temperature and precipitation are hardly affected by changes in the external forcings.