Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems Earthquake Engng Struct. Dyn. 2007 (DOI: 10.1002/eqe.675)
Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems Earthquake Engng Struct. Dyn. 2007 (DOI: 10.1002/eqe.675)
复制标题
为地震预警系统设定的预期损失警报阈值 Earthquake Enng Struct 2007（DOI：10.1002/eqe.675）
DOI：
10.1002/eqe.725
复制
发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Manfredi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
I. Iervolino;M. Giorgio;G. Manfredi
地震预警系统（EEWS）似乎有潜力作为实时地震风险管理和缓解的工具。事实上，尽管建筑物的疏散需要预警时间，但在许多受地震危险威胁的城市化地区，这些时间仍然可以用于使用自动系统实时保护关键设施，以减少灾难性事件后的损失。这是可能的，因为实时地震学，其中包括方法和程序，用于快速估计地震的特点，如震级和位置，根据测量的第一秒的P波。地震早期预警（EEW）的地震工程应用可能是一个系统，能够发出警报，如果一些记录的参数超过一个给定的阈值，以激活风险缓解行动之前，地震发生在感兴趣的网站。这种EEWS的可行性分析和设计需要评估由于安全措施和警报阈值设置而导致的预期损失减少。本文提出了一个基于性能的地震工程概率框架中执行这些任务的程序。一个仅仅是说明性的例子是指假设为教室的简单结构。考虑了结构性损坏和非结构性倒塌;安全行动是在办公桌下面保护居住者。假警报造成的费用假定与教学活动中断有关。结果表明，预期损失的比较，报警发行和非发行的情况下，允许设置报警阈值的定量和一致的基础上，以及如何它可能是一个工具，EEW的工程应用的设计。版权所有q 2007约翰威利父子有限公司。
Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real-time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the realtime protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real-time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P-waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance-based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non-structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm-issuance and non-issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright q 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.