Drought and Wetness Variability and the Respective Contribution of Temperature and Precipitation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
Drought and Wetness Variability and the Respective Contribution of Temperature and Precipitation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
复制标题
DOI：
10.1155/2021/7378196
复制
发表时间：
2021-09
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Lele Zhang;Liming Gao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lele Zhang;Liming Gao
量化旱涝波动对区域生态环境和水资源安全具有重要意义，特别是在脆弱的青藏高原。利用1979-2015年QTP观测资料和中国气象强迫数据集（CMFD）计算了标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI），并分析了基于SPEI序列的旱涝演变及温度和降水的贡献。结果表明，青藏高原气象站主要集中在高原东部，不能反映青藏高原整体的旱涝变化趋势。线性趋势和Mann-Kendall检验显示，基于CMFD数据计算的SPEI系列在1个月、3个月、6个月、9个月、12个月和24个月的时间尺度上均显示出显著的上升趋势p < 0.01，表明QTP总体上趋于湿润。从空间上看，干旱化p < 0.1和干旱概率增加的区域主要集中在柴达木盆地和青藏高原南部，温度和降水变率对SPEI趋势的平均贡献率分别为60%和− 11%。湿润p < 0.1和干旱概率显著降低的区域主要集中在高原东北部、中部和西部，这些区域温度和降水变率对SPEI趋势的平均贡献率分别为-9%和61%。从不同气候区的统计数据来看，青藏高原的干旱和湿润区大多数地区趋于干旱，而半干旱区则趋于湿润。
Quantifying drought and wetness fluctuations is of great significance to the regional ecological environment and water resource security, especially in the fragile Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). In this paper, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on the observed data and China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) in the QTP for the period of 1979–2015, and the drought and wetness evolution based on the SPEI series and respective contribution of temperature and precipitation were also analyzed. Results indicated that meteorological stations are mainly concentrated in the eastern part of the plateau, which cannot reflect the drought and wetness trend of the whole QTP. The linear trend and Mann–Kendall test revealed that SPEI series calculated based on CMFD data at 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, and 24-month time scales all showed significant upward trend p < 0.01 , indicating that the QTP as a whole tended to be wetter. Spatially, the regions with significant drying p < 0.1 and increased drought probability were mainly concentrated in the Qaidam Basin and the southern part of the QTP, and the mean contribution rates of temperature and precipitation variability to SPEI trend in these regions were 60% and −11%, respectively. The regions with significant wetting p < 0.1 and decreased drought probability were mainly concentrated in the northeast, central, and western parts of the plateau, and the mean contribution rates of temperature and precipitation variability to SPEI trend were −9% and 61% in these regions. From the statistics in different climatic regions, most of the arid and humid regions in the QTP tended to be drier, while the semiarid regions tended to be wetter.