Tropical Pacific Ocean heat content variations and ENSO persistence barriers
Tropical Pacific Ocean heat content variations and ENSO persistence barriers
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DOI：
10.1029/2003gl016872
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发表时间：
2003-05-09
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
McPhaden, MJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
McPhaden, MJ
[1]利用1980-2002年期间热带太平洋的资料，研究了与厄尔尼诺和南方涛动(ENSO)有关的海表面温度(SST)和上层海洋热含量变化的持续性。研究表明，与SST不同，在考虑上层海洋热含量时，不存在春季持续性障碍。相反，北方冬季的热量含量存在与季节变化减少有关的持续性障碍。这些结果与ENSO预报模式研究相一致，表明对上层海洋热含量的准确初始化往往会降低春季海温预报障碍的重要性。它们还表明，上层海洋热含量变化的初始化可能会导致预报技能的季节性增强，其中最明显的增强是在ENSO事件发展的早期和后期开始的。
[1] Data from the tropical Pacific Ocean for the period 1980 - 2002 are used to examine the persistence of sea surface temperature SST) and upper ocean heat content variations in relation to El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The present study demonstrates that, unlike for SST, there is no spring persistence barrier when considering upper ocean heat content. Conversely, there is a persistence barrier for heat content in boreal winter related to a seasonal reduction in variance. These results are consistent with ENSO forecast model studies indicating that accurate initialization of upper ocean heat content often reduces the prominence of the spring prediction barrier for SST. They also suggest that initialization of upper ocean heat content variations may lead to seasonally varying enhancements of forecast skill, with the most pronounced enhancements for forecasts starting early and late in the development of ENSO events.