An Event Tree Model For Estimation Of Fire Outbreak Risks In Case Of A Large-scale Earthquake
An Event Tree Model For Estimation Of Fire Outbreak Risks In Case Of A Large-scale Earthquake
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DOI：
10.3801/iafss.fss.1-931
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发表时间：
1986
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
H. Kaji;T. Komura
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Kaji;T. Komura
本文旨在开发一种新的方法来估计火灾发生的风险，在一个大规模地震的情况下，使用计算机模拟技术，其中的因果关系，火灾发生的事件树结构建模。以商用厨房为例，调查了约5,000家不同行业的厨房，特别是其中使用的消防设备。根据55起地震火灾的实际因果关系，设计了一个事件树结构。应用蒙特卡罗模拟技术对不同商业类型的火灾发生风险进行了评估。虽然许多问题仍然没有答案，这种方法的有用性和高度的适用性清楚地显示。
This paper aims to develop a new method for estimating fire outbreak risks in the case of a large-scale earthquake using computer simulation technique, in which causal relationships concerning fire outbreak are modeled as an event tree structure. As a case study, kitchens for commercial use were taken, and about 5,000 kitchens of different types of business were surveyed particularly in terms of the fire appliances used therein. An event tree structure was designed on the basis of practical causal relations of 55 fires which broke out in past earthquakes. Monte Carlo simulation technique was applied for estimating fire outbreak risks by business type. Although many questions remain unanswered, the usefullness and high applicability of this method are clearly shown.