Why model assumptions matter for natural resource management: interactions between model structure and life histories in fishery models
Why model assumptions matter for natural resource management: interactions between model structure and life histories in fishery models
复制标题
为什么模型假设对自然资源管理很重要：渔业模型中模型结构与生活史之间的相互作用
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.12225
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Hillary
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Hoshino;E. Milner‐Gulland;R. Hillary
1. 生物经济模型越来越多地被用来为收获水平提供基准
野生动物和自然资源管理，但与模型结构相关的不确定性
尚未充分探索。我们调查一系列不确定性的重要性，重点关注
估计生物经济目标参考点（TRP）时的模型结构和生命史
并评估忽略这些不确定性的政策影响。
2. 我们使用三个对比案例研究来调查与生活史参数相关的模型、观察和过程误差之间的相互作用：寿命短的日本普通鱿鱼 Todarodes pacificus 和太平洋秋刀鱼 Cololabis saira，以及生长缓慢的日本鱿鱼 Todarodes pacificus 和太平洋秋刀鱼 Cololabis saira
巴塔哥尼亚齿鱼 Dissostichus eleginoides。我们开发了一个模拟框架来测试
在各种假设下生物经济 TRP 产生的收获策略
模型结构和参数。
3. 我们发现不同类型的不确定性对精度和影响的相对重要性
模型输出的准确性根据生活史特征而变化。差异不大
在秋刀鱼的简单种群模型与复杂种群模型之间发现了 TRP 估计值，而大
齿鱼发现了差异。鱿鱼库存结构的假设
不仅导致不同的 TRP 估计值（通常，多股票模型的值较小），而且
不同的经济结果也取决于股票之间的努力分配平衡。
4.合成与应用。我们使用的模型与实际管理中使用的模型类似
三个案例研究物种，探讨相互作用的不确定性对管理的影响
建议。我们表明模型结构元素之间的相互作用导致
根据相关物种的生活史，管理建议也有很大不同。对于
长寿的齿鱼、生活史和齿轮选择性参数之间存在强烈的相互作用。对于
短命鱿鱼分为两个种群进行管理，空间捕捞努力量分配，相关性
种群和差异种群生产力之间的环境驱动因素相互作用，
如果对股票结构的假设不正确，就会产生非常糟糕的经济表现。
基于模型的自然资源管理的关键信息是：
研究与模型结构、过程和估计误差相关的主要不确定性
同时，因为它们相互作用产生非直观的结果。
1. Bioeconomic models are increasingly used to provide benchmarks for harvest levels in
wildlife and natural resource management, yet uncertainties related to model structure are
underexplored. We investigate the importance of a range of uncertainties with a focus on
model structure and life histories when estimating bioeconomic target reference point (TRPs)
and assess the policy implications of ignoring these uncertainties.
2. We use three contrasting case studies to investigate the interactions between model, observational and process errors related to life-history parameters: the short-lived Japanese common squid Todarodes pacificus and Pacific saury Cololabis saira, and the slow-growing
Patagonian toothfish Dissostichus eleginoides. We developed a simulation framework to test
the harvest strategies resulting from bioeconomic TRPs under various assumptions about
model structures and parameters.
3. We found the relative importance of different types of uncertainties affecting precision and
accuracy of the model outputs varied according to the life-history traits. Little difference in
TRP estimates was found between simple vs. complex population models for saury, while large
differences were found for toothfish. The assumptions made about stock structure for squid
not only resulted in different TRP estimates (generally, smaller for the multistock models), but
also different economic outcomes depending on the balance of effort allocation between stocks.
4. Synthesis and applications. We use models similar to those used in the actual management
of three case study species to explore the effects of interacting uncertainties on the management
advice. We show that the interactions between structural elements of the models lead to
very different management advice, depending on the life history of the species concerned. For
the long-lived toothfish, life-history and gear selectivity parameters interacted strongly. For
the short-lived squid which is managed as two stocks, spatial fishing effort allocation, correlation
of environmental drivers between stocks and differential stock productivity interacted,
producing very poor economic performance if assumptions about stock structure are incorrect.
The key message for model-based natural resource management is that it is vital to
investigate the major uncertainties related to model structure, process and estimation errors
simultaneously, because they interact to produce non-intuitive results.