Life under lockdown: Illustrating tradeoffs in South Africa's response to COVID-19
Life under lockdown: Illustrating tradeoffs in South Africa's response to COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105168
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Makhura, Moraka N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carlitz, Ruth D.;Makhura, Moraka N.
这份研究报告揭示了南非COVID-19疫情爆发的前三个月，该病毒在南非的传播速度比该地区其他任何地方都快。与此同时，南非因其迅速和有效的早期反应而得到全球认可。我们考虑了这一应对措施对不同人群的影响，研究了各省流动性的变化，以突出不同人群遵守封锁令的意愿和能力的差异。使用匿名的移动的电话数据，我们表明，在所有省份的南非人减少了他们的流动性大幅响应政府的封锁令。统计回归分析显示，这种流动性降低与两周后的COVID-19增长率显著负相关。这些研究结果增加了一个重要的视角，以新兴的文献的效力，就地庇护令，其中迄今为止主要是美国的研究。我们表明，在疫情初期受影响最严重的省份，人们特别愿意和能够采取行动。与此同时，遵守封锁令对农村人口和其他生计更不稳定的人构成了更大的挑战。通过反思南非的不平等状况和最近的一项调查结果，我们展示了该国的反应可能会加深预先存在的分歧。这一警示性的故事不仅适用于南非，因为非洲大陆--乃至世界--的大部分地区都在努力应对类似的权衡。沿着控制疾病传播的措施，各国政府和其他以发展为重点的组织应认真考虑如何抵消已经被边缘化的人口所面临的成本。(c)2020爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
This research note sheds light on the first three months of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa, where the virus has spread faster than anywhere else in the region. At the same time, South Africa has been rec-ognized globally for its swift and efficient early response. We consider the impact of this response on different segments of the population, looking at changes in mobility by province to highlight variation in the willingness and ability of different subsets of the population to comply with lockdown orders. Using anonymized mobile phone data, we show that South Africans in all provinces reduced their mobility substantially in response to the government's lockdown orders. Statistical regression analysis shows that such mobility reductions are significantly and negatively associated with COVID-19 growth rates two weeks later. These findings add an important perspective to the emerging literature on the efficacy of shelter-in-place orders, which to date is dominated by studies of the United States. We show that people were particularly willing and able to act in the provinces hit hardest by the pandemic in its initial stages. At the same time, compliance with lockdown orders presented a greater challenge among rural populations and others with more precarious livelihoods. By reflecting on South Africa's inequality profile and results of a recent survey, we demonstrate how the country's response may deepen preexisting divides. This cautionary tale is relevant beyond South Africa, as much of the continent - and the world - grapples with similar tradeoffs. Along with measures to contain the spread of disease, governments and other development focused organizations should seriously consider how to offset the costs faced by already marginalized populations. (c) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.