An Updated Assessment of Near-Surface Temperature Change From 1850: The HadCRUT5 Data Set
An Updated Assessment of Near-Surface Temperature Change From 1850: The HadCRUT5 Data Set
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2019jd032361
复制
发表时间：
2021-02-16
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Simpson, I. R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morice, C. P.;Kennedy, J. J.;Simpson, I. R.
我们提出了一个新版本的气象局哈德利中心/气候研究单位全球表面温度数据集，HadCRUT 5。HadCRUT 5提供了1850年至2018年期间相对于1961-1990年期间的月平均近地表温度异常，网格为5度纬度× 5度经度。HadCRUT 5是由船舶和浮标测量的海洋表面温度（SST）和陆地表面气象站测量的近地表空气温度的组合。这些数据来自最新汇编，为减轻SST测量方法变化的影响而进行的调整已经修订。HadCRUT 5的两种变体已被生产用于不同的应用。第一个表示网格上的温度异常数据，用于测量数据可用的位置。第二，更空间完整的，变量使用高斯过程为基础的统计方法，更好地利用现有的观测，扩展温度异常估计到地区的基础测量是翔实的。每一个都是作为一个200成员的合奏伴随着额外的不确定性信息。修正后的输入数据集和统计分析相结合，导致整个记录过程中全球平均变暖幅度更大。近年来，由于北极变暖的代表性得到改善，以及对船舶SST测量中不断演变的偏差有了更好的理解，导致变暖加剧。这些更新使我们与其他独立的全球地表温度数据集更加一致，尽管它们的数据集构建方法不同，并进一步增强了我们对所见变化的理解的信心。简明语言摘要我们制作了一个新版本的数据集，该数据集测量了1850年至2018年地球仪近地表温度的变化，称为HadCRUT 5。我们纳入了一套改进的海面温度数据，这套数据更好地说明了船舶和海上浮标测量方式随时间变化的影响。我们还包括一个扩大汇编的测量站在陆地上。HadCRUT 5有两种变体，用于不同的用途。第一个是“HadCRUT 5非填充数据集”，它在网格上绘制了靠近我们测量位置的温度变化。第二，“HadCRUT 5分析”，使用统计技术，利用温度模式的空间连通性，将我们的估计扩展到距离现有测量值更远的位置。这改进了在估计全球、半球和区域温度变化时对观测较差地区的代表性。总之，这些更新和改进表明，自世纪以来，近地表温度略有上升，特别是在北方半球，这与其他数据集更加一致。这增加了我们对自世纪中期以来全球地表温度变化的理解的信心。
We present a new version of the Met Office Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit global surface temperature data set, HadCRUT5. HadCRUT5 presents monthly average near-surface temperature anomalies, relative to the 1961-1990 period, on a regular 5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude grid from 1850 to 2018. HadCRUT5 is a combination of sea-surface temperature (SST) measurements over the ocean from ships and buoys and near-surface air temperature measurements from weather stations over the land surface. These data have been sourced from updated compilations and the adjustments applied to mitigate the impact of changes in SST measurement methods have been revised. Two variants of HadCRUT5 have been produced for use in different applications. The first represents temperature anomaly data on a grid for locations where measurement data are available. The second, more spatially complete, variant uses a Gaussian process based statistical method to make better use of the available observations, extending temperature anomaly estimates into regions for which the underlying measurements are informative. Each is provided as a 200-member ensemble accompanied by additional uncertainty information. The combination of revised input data sets and statistical analysis results in greater warming of the global average over the course of the whole record. In recent years, increased warming results from an improved representation of Arctic warming and a better understanding of evolving biases in SST measurements from ships. These updates result in greater consistency with other independent global surface temperature data sets, despite their different approaches to data set construction, and further increase confidence in our understanding of changes seen.Plain Language Summary We have produced a new version of a data set that measures changes of near-surface temperature across the globe from 1850 to 2018, called HadCRUT5. We have included an improved data set of sea-surface temperature, which better accounts for the effects of changes through time in how measurement were made from ships and buoys at sea. We have also included an expanded compilation of measurements made at weather stations on land. There are two variations of HadCRUT5, produced for different uses. The first, the "HadCRUT5 noninfilled data set," maps temperature changes on a grid for locations close to where we have measurements. The second, the "HadCRUT5 analysis," extends our estimates to locations further from the available measurements using a statistical technique that makes use of the spatial connectedness of temperature patterns. This improves the representation of less well observed regions in estimates of global, hemispheric and regional temperature change. Together, these updates and improvements reveal a slightly greater rise in nearsurface temperature since the nineteenth century, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, which is more consistent with other data sets. This increases our confidence in our understanding of global surface temperature changes since the mid-19th century.