The State of the Art of Seasonal Prediction Outcomes and Recommendations from the First World Climate Research Program Workshop on Seasonal Prediction
The State of the Art of Seasonal Prediction Outcomes and Recommendations from the First World Climate Research Program Workshop on Seasonal Prediction
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DOI：
10.1175/2008bams2707.1
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发表时间：
2009-04-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Pirani, Anna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kirtman, Ben;Pirani, Anna
是由本·克特曼和安娜·皮拉尼所作的预言强迫，还是用于预测的模型出现了严重的故障，或者仅仅是一种抽样效应？我们是否考虑到了气候系统（海洋-大气-生物圈-冰冻圈）所有要素之间的所有关键相互作用？观测数据是否与模型充分融合，以做出最佳预测？为了达成共识并解决这些问题，2007年在西班牙召开了第一次WCRP季节性预测研讨会1。它将研究人员与世界气候研究计划的四个核心项目（WCRP-CLIVAR，CliC，GEWEX和SPARC 2）以及世界气候计划（WCP）通过其WCASP/CLIPS 3项目聚集在一起，重点关注两个首要问题：
BY BEN KIRTMAN AND ANNA PIRANI pogenic forcing, or the emergence of a critical failing in the models used to make predictions, or merely a sampling effect? Have we accounted for all of the critical interactions among all the elements of the climate system (ocean–atmosphere–biosphere–cryosphere)? Are the observations adequately blended with the models to make the best possible forecasts? To gain consensus and address these concerns, the First WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop1 was convened in Spain in 2007. It brought together researchers with the four core projects of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP–CLIVAR, CliC, GEWEX, and SPARC2), as well as the World Climate Programme (WCP) through its WCASP/CLIPS3 project, to focus on two overarching questions: