A grey-based method for evaluating the effects of rating curve uncertainty on frequency analysis of annual maxima
A grey-based method for evaluating the effects of rating curve uncertainty on frequency analysis of annual maxima
复制标题
基于灰色的评估评级曲线不确定性对年度最大值频率分析影响的方法
DOI：
10.2166/hydro.2012.127
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
M. Franchini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Alvisi;M. Franchini
本文提出了一种基于灰色理论的方法来表征流量测量误差引起的额定曲线不确定性及其对洪水频率分析的影响。在水位和流量测量的基础上，用灰色非线性回归估计了额定曲线的灰色参数。从这条灰色等级曲线和一组年最大流量阶段开始，我们展示了如何估计灰色年最大流量的概率分布(这里假设为EV1型)。灰色EV1分布可以通过两种方法来估计，第一种方法直接利用对应于年最大阶段的灰色流量，而第二种方法通过考虑评级曲线的灰色参数的下限和上限，得到两组不同的极端(清晰)流量，从而得到两种界定给定重现期灰色流量的极值(清晰)EV1分布。该方法是使用与波河(意大利)测量段有关的数据来说明的。结果表明，与第二种方法相比，第一种方法产生了更广泛的灰色EV1分布，并给出了物理上的证明。
A grey-based technique for characterizing the rating curve uncertainty due to discharge measurement errors and its effect on flood frequency analysis is here presented. On the basis of river stage and discharge measurements, the grey parameters of the rating curve are estimated by using a grey non-linear regression. Commencing with this grey rating curve and a set of annual maximum stages, we show how the probability distribution (here assumed of EV1 type) of the grey annual maximum discharges can be estimated. The grey EV1 distribution can be estimated through two approaches, the first of which directly exploits the grey discharges corresponding to the annual maximum stages, whereas with the second approach two different sets of extreme (crisp) discharges, and therefore two EV1 distributions of extreme (crisp) values which delimit the grey discharges of a given return period, are obtained by considering the lower and upper limits of the grey parameters of the rating curve. The methodology is illustrated using data pertaining to a gauged section of the River Po (Italy). The results show that the first approach yields a wider grey EV1 distribution with respect to that resulting from the second approach: physical justification of this is given.