Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure
Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.mbs.2009.12.003
复制
发表时间：
2010-04-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Trapman, Pieter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ball, Frank;Sirl, David;Trapman, Pieter
本文研究了一类传染病在一个随机的社会接触网络中传播的随机SIR（易感-传染-消除）模型，该网络也被划分为家庭。当种群规模以适当的方式趋于无穷大时，研究了该模型的行为。获得了一个阈值参数，该参数确定了一种具有很少初始感染者的流行病是否可以建立并导致大爆发，以及大爆发发生的概率和最终被这种爆发感染的人口的预期比例，连同计算这些量的方法，蒙特卡罗模拟表明，这些渐近量准确地反映了有限的人口，即使只有中等规模的有限人口的模型进行了比较和对比与以前在文献中研究的相关模型。还探讨了总体群体结构中存在的聚类量和感染期分布对模型结果的影响（C）2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
This paper is concerned with a stochastic SIR (susceptible -> infective -> removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals, with a random network of social contacts, that IS also partitioned into households. The behaviour of the model as the population size tends to infinity in an appropriate fashion is investigated. A threshold parameter which determines whether or not an epidemic with few initial infectives can become established and lead to a major outbreak is obtained, as are the probability that a major outbreak occurs and the expected proportion of the population that are ultimately infected by such an outbreak, together with methods for calculating these quantities Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these asymptotic quantities accurately reflect the behaviour of finite populations, even for only moderately sized finite populations The model is compared and contrasted with related models previously studied in the literature. The effects of the amount of clustering present in the overall population structure and the infectious period distribution on the outcomes of the model are also explored (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.