A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism
A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism
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DOI：
10.1001/archinte.166.2.169
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发表时间：
2006-01-23
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Fine, MJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aujesky, D;Obrosky, DS;Fine, MJ
Background: A simple prognostic model could help identify patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of death and are candidates for outpatient treatment.Methods: We randomly allocated 15 531 retrospectively identified inpatients who had a discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our rule to predict 30-day mortality using classification tree analysis and patient data routinely available at initial examination as potential predictor variables. We used data from a European prospective study to externally validate the rule among 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism. We determined mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across derivation and validation samples.Results: Our final model consisted of 10 patient factors (age >= 70 years: history of cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, and cerebrovascular disease; and clinical variables of pulse rate >= 110 beats/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, altered mental status, and arterial oxygen saturation
