The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning
The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning
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DOI：
10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
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发表时间：
2005-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Van Der Heijden, K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bradfield, R;Wright, G;Van Der Heijden, K
情景规划已经存在了30多年，在此期间开发了许多技术和方法，导致了被描述为“方法论混乱”，这在不久的将来不太可能消失。Martelli，Scenario Building and Scenario Planning：State of the Art and Prospects of Evolution，Futures Research Quarterly Summer（2001）。这反映在以下事实中：文献揭示了大量不同的、有时相互矛盾的关于设想方案的定义、特征、原则和方法论思想。有人建议，未来情景的迫切需要是解决“情景的定义和方法”的混乱。本文首先追溯了场景的起源和发展以及随后各种方法的演变;将这些方法分为三个主要的技术流派，并对这些流派的显著特征进行了比较和对比。(c)2005爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Scenario Planning has been around for more than 30 years and during this period a multitude of techniques and methodologies have developed, resulting in what has been described as a 'methodological chaos' which is unlikely to disappear in the near future (A. Martelli, Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of evolution, Futures Research Quarterly Summer (2001)). This is reflected in the fact that literature reveals an abundance of different and at times contradictory definitions, characteristics, principles and methodological ideas about scenarios. It has been suggested that a pressing need for the future of scenarios is amongst other things, to resolve the confusion over 'the definitions and methods of scenarios'. This paper makes a beginning at this need by tracing the origins and growth of scenarios and the subsequent evolution of the various methodologies; a classification of the methodologies into three main schools of techniques is given and the salient features of these schools are compared and contrasted. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.