ESTIMATING THE INCUBATION-TIME DISTRIBUTION AND EXPECTED NUMBER OF CASES OF TRANSFUSION-ASSOCIATED ACQUIRED IMMUNE-DEFICIENCY SYNDROME
ESTIMATING THE INCUBATION-TIME DISTRIBUTION AND EXPECTED NUMBER OF CASES OF TRANSFUSION-ASSOCIATED ACQUIRED IMMUNE-DEFICIENCY SYNDROME
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1537-2995.1989.29890020437.x
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发表时间：
1989-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
LAWLESS, JF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
KALBFLEISCH, JD;LAWLESS, JF
由于通过输血感染人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）的人数以及从通过输血感染艾滋病毒到诊断出艾滋病的潜伏期的持续时间都存在不确定性，未来几年将出现的输血相关获得性免疫缺陷综合症（TA-AIDS）病例数量难以估计。这里介绍的是 TA-AIDS 最新数据的数学模型以及非参数和参数统计分析，清楚地表明了现有的可估计性问题。这些方法提供了要报告的新 TA-AIDS 病例的短期预测；结果表明，1988 年 7 月至 1989 年 6 月期间，美国报告了约 1100 例新病例，1989 年 7 月至 1990 年 6 月期间，报告了约 1500 例新病例。对最终出现的 TA-AIDS 病例数量的估计更加不确定，需要对潜伏分布进行额外的假设。假设感染者在感染后 8 年内患上艾滋病的概率为 0.40（根据对同性恋男性和血友病患者的队列研究得出的估计值），参数分析和非参数分析分别对 1985 年 7 月之前因输血感染而导致的艾滋病最终病例数（13-69 岁）的点估计值分别为 14,300 和 15,000。参数分析给出相应的 95% 置信区间。
The number of cases of transfusion-associated acquired immune deficiency syndrome (TA-AIDS) that will be seen over the next few years is difficult to estimate, because of the uncertainty about the number of persons infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) via blood transfusion and about the duration of the incubation period from HIV infection via transfusion to diagnosis of AIDS. Presented here are a mathematical model and nonparametric and parametric statistical analyses of recent data on TA-AIDS that indicate clearly the existing estimability problems. The methods provide short-term projections of new TA-AIDS cases to be reported; the results suggest about 1100 new cases to be reported in the United States between July 1988 and June 1989 and about 1500 more between July 1989 and June 1990. Estimates of the number of eventual TA-AIDS cases to be seen are considerably more uncertain and require additional assumptions about the incubation distribution. Under the assumption that the probability of an infected person developing AIDS within 8 years of infection is 0.40 (an estimation derived from cohort studies in homosexual men and hemophiliacs), parametric and nonparametric analyses give, respectively, point estimates of 14,300 and 15,000 for the number of eventual cases of AIDS (in the age group 13-69) attributable to infection by blood transfusion prior to July 1985. The parameteric analyses gives a corresponding 95 percent confidence interval.