Indications of the neutron effect contribution in the solid cancer data of the A-bomb survivors
Indications of the neutron effect contribution in the solid cancer data of the A-bomb survivors
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DOI：
10.1097/01.hp.0000184917.94232.cd
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发表时间：
2006-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Walsh, Linda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kellerer, Albrecht M.;Ruehm, Werner;Walsh, Linda
对辐射诱发癌症的风险估计主要是根据对日本原子弹爆炸幸存者的跟踪调查。他们的暴露是由于伽马射线和中子，而且，目前假设中子的RBE = 10，并参考结肠剂量，晚期辐射效应几乎完全归因于伽马射线。这里评估了不同器官部位的实体癌症风险估计，并且对于更靠近身体表面的器官发现了较大值的不明显但统计学上高度显著的趋势;即，身体屏蔽较少的器官，因此，具有较大的中子剂量分数。低估中子的RBE可以解释这种明显的相关性。当RBE值接近100时，ERR/戈伊与深度的趋势不再具有统计学显著性。建议的高RBE值和相应的减少伽玛射线的风险估计被认为是符合对数似然计算AMFIT，提供了固体癌症的死亡率的原子弹幸存者的最小偏差RBE = 100与95%的置信下限为25。本评估必须使用可再生能源应急基金公开提供的数据。在这种形式中，它们包含城市，性别，年龄和剂量类别，但-而不是一个单独的中子剂量类别-只有每个数据单元格的平均中子剂量。因此，这里获得的初步结论应该通过更明确的分析进行检查，或者根据具有单独中子剂量分类的分组数据，或者理想情况下，根据在RERF中使用单独估计的中子剂量进行的逐个人的计算。
Risk estimates for radiation-induced cancer are primarily based on the follow-up of the Japanese A-bomb survivors. Their exposures were due to gamma rays and neutrons, and, currently-with the assumed low RBE = 10 of neutrons and reference to the colon dose-the late radiation effects are almost fully attributed to the gamma rays. Solid cancer risk estimates for different organ sites are assessed here, and an inconspicuous but statistically highly significant trend of larger values is found for the organs closer to the body surface; i.e., the organs with less body shielding and, therefore, with larger neutron dose-fractions. Underestimation of the RBE of neutrons can explain this apparent correlation. The trend of ERR/Gy vs. depth ceases to be statistically significant for RBE values close to 100. The suggestion of high RBE values and the corresponding reduction of gamma-ray risk estimates is found to be in line with log-likelihood computations in terms of AMFIT, which provide for the solid cancer mortality of the A-bomb survivors the minimum deviance for RBE = 100 with a 95% confidence lower limit of 25. The present assessment had to use the data made publicly available by RERF. In this form they contain city-, sex-, age-, and dose-categories, but - instead of a separate neutron-dose category-only the mean neutron dose for each data cell. The tentative conclusions that are here obtained should, therefore, be examined by a more definitive analysis, either in terms of grouped data with a separate classification of neutron doses or, ideally, in terms of person by person calculations to be performed at RERF with individually estimated neutron doses.