Spatiotemporal variations in the incidence of bacillary dysentery and long-term effects associated with meteorological and socioeconomic factors in China from 2013 to 2017
Spatiotemporal variations in the incidence of bacillary dysentery and long-term effects associated with meteorological and socioeconomic factors in China from 2013 to 2017
复制标题
2013-2017年中国细菌性痢疾发病时空变化及气象和社会经济因素的长期影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142626
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Changxiu Cheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xiangxue Zhang;Xinchen Gu;Li Wang;Yuke Zhou;Zhentao Huang;Chengdong Xu;Changxiu Cheng
细菌性痢疾是一个全球性的公共卫生问题，具有明显的时空异质性。然而，长期变化和区域决定因素仍不清楚。本研究利用贝叶斯时空层次模型，识别我国北方和南方2013 - 2017年细菌性痢疾发病率的长期时空异质性，量化气象因素与细菌性痢疾发病率的关联。GeoDetector被用来量化这两个区域的社会经济因素的决定性力量。结果表明，细菌性痢疾发病高峰在夏季（6 ~ 8月），具有时间季节性。从地理上看，热点（高风险地区）分布在西北地区（新疆、甘肃、宁夏）和北方（包括北京、天津、河北），冷点（低风险地区）集中在东南地区（江苏、浙江、福建、广东）。此外，气象和社会经济因素之间存在显着的区域差异。平均气温是影响北方和南方降水的主要气象因子。在中国北方和南方，平均气温每升高1 ℃，导致细菌性痢疾风险分别增加1.01%和4.26%。北方和南方的主导社会经济因素是人均国内生产总值和卫生技术人员数，q统计值分别为0.81和0.49。这些发现表明，炎热、潮湿和过度拥挤的环境或不良的健康状况会增加细菌性痢疾的风险。这项研究提供了建议，并作为监测工作的基础。此外，这些建议可能有助于细菌性痢疾的控制和疾病预防政策的实施。
Bacillary dysentery is a global public health problem that exhibits manifest spatiotemporal heterogeneity. However, long-term variations and regional determinant factors remain unclear. In this study, the Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was used to identify the long-term spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the incidence of bacillary dysentery and quantify the associations of meteorological factors with the incidence of bacillary dysentery in northern and southern China from 2013 to 2017. GeoDetector was used to quantify the determinant powers of socioeconomic factors in the two regions. The results showed that the incidence of bacillary dysentery peaked in summer (June to August), indicating temporal seasonality. Geographically, the hot spots (high-risk areas) were distributed in northwestern China (Xinjiang, Gansu, and Ningxia) and northern China (including Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei), whereas the cold spots (low-risk areas) were concentrated in southeastern China (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong). Moreover, significant regional differences were found among the meteorological and socioeconomic factors. Average temperature was the dominant meteorological factor in both northern and southern China. In northern and southern China, a 1 °C increase in the average temperature led to an increase of 1.01% and 4.26% in bacillary dysentery risk, respectively. The dominant socioeconomic factors in northern and southern China were per capita gross domestic product and the number of health technicians, withqstatistic values of 0.81 and 0.49, respectively. These findings suggest that hot, moist, and overcrowded environments or poor health conditions increase the risk of bacillary dysentery. This study provides suggestions and serves as a basis for surveillance efforts. Further, the suggestions may aid in the control of bacillary dysentery and in the implementation of disease prevention policies.