Population-level relationships between alcohol consumption measures and Ischemic Heart Disease mortality in U.S. time-series.
Population-level relationships between alcohol consumption measures and Ischemic Heart Disease mortality in U.S. time-series.
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1530-0277.2007.00486.x
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发表时间：
2007-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
W. Kerr;Y. Ye
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Kerr;Y. Ye
背景个人研究表明，根据饮酒模式，饮酒可能对缺血性心脏病（IHD）死亡率产生保护性和有害影响。人口层面的关系可能是双向的，之前的研究发现了不同的结果。方法 使用自回归积分移动平均 (ARIMA) 和向量误差校正方法对 1950 年至 2002 年期间 IHD 死亡率与人均酒精饮料、肝硬化死亡率、香烟和加糖汽水消费之间的人口水平关系进行建模。结果 在控制以肝硬化死亡率为代表的累积大量饮酒的多变量 ARIMA 模型中，发现 4%/l 对总饮酒量有保护作用，而肝硬化死亡率对 IHD 发生率具有显着的积极影响。特定于饮料的模型发现对葡萄酒没有影响，对烈酒有积极的风险，对啤酒有显着的保护作用。矢量误差校正模型也发现了对总酒精和啤酒的保护作用。在这两种模型中也发现卷烟销售对 IHD 率有显着的积极影响。结论 酒精与 IHD 关系的复杂性得到了强调。以饮料特定消费和肝硬化死亡率为代表的模式方面表明，根据个人水平的研究结果，适度饮酒具有潜在的保护作用，而大量饮酒则具有有害影响。
BACKGROUND Individual-level studies indicate the possibility of both protective and harmful effects of alcohol consumption on Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) mortality depending on the pattern of consumption. Population-level relationships could be in either direction and previous studies have found mixed results. METHODS Population-level relationships between IHD mortality rates and per capita consumption of alcoholic beverages, cirrhosis mortality rates, cigarettes, and sugar sweetened soda for the period from 1950 to 2002 are modeled using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and vector error correction methods. RESULTS In multivariate ARIMA models controlling for accumulated heavy drinking as represented by cirrhosis mortality, a protective effect of 4%/l was found for total alcohol consumption while cirrhosis mortality rates had significant positive effects on IHD rates. Beverage-specific models found no effect for wine, positive risks for spirits, and significant protective effects for beer. The protective effects for both total alcohol and beer were also found in vector error correction models. Significant positive effects of cigarette sales on IHD rates were also found in both types of models. CONCLUSIONS The complexity of alcohol's relationship with IHD is highlighted. Aspects of pattern represented by beverage-specific consumption and cirrhosis mortality indicate potential protective effects from moderate drinking and harmful effects from heavy drinking in accord with individual-level findings.