Choosing Instruments in Managing Dollar Foreign Exchange Reserves
Choosing Instruments in Managing Dollar Foreign Exchange Reserves
复制标题
选择管理美元外汇储备的工具
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Fung
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Robert N. McCauley;B. Fung
两年前，官方外汇储备的管理者们还在考虑一个不确定但严峻的前景：未偿美国国债存量减少。这种担忧反映出这样一个事实：全球约四分之三的外汇储备是以美元形式持有的，而这些外汇储备的管理传统上青睐美国国债。如今，随着美国经济在经历了一次轻微衰退后增长缓慢，以及可自由支配的减税措施的影响开始显现，美国国债的存量再次扩大。此外，尽管爆发一场持续时间和费用未知的战争的风险，给对美国未来赤字的任何预测带来了比以往更多的不确定性，但毫无疑问，这种扩张将持续一段时间。传统投资工具的流通股逐渐消失所带来的挑战，似乎不再像两年前那么紧迫了。官方外汇储备管理者不再理所当然地面对其传统投资工具的存量逐渐消失。然而，在低利率环境下实现回报的压力，可能会给外汇储备管理者带来其他挑战。这让人们关注到外汇储备管理者对金融工具的选择。本文分析了近年来各国央行投资美元储备的工具，并提出了三个问题：官方的美元投资组合是如何投资的？随着时间的推移，乐器的选择是如何演变的？最近发生的事件，包括经济衰退和美国财政赤字的回归、美国国债收益率的下降和企业违约，又如何改变了欧元的演变？
Two years ago, managers of official foreign exchange reserves were pondering the uncertain but serious prospect of a shrinking stock of outstanding US Treasury securities. This concern reflected the fact that some three quarters of global foreign exchange reserves were held in US dollars, and their management traditionally favoured US Treasury securities. Today, with the US economy growing slowly after a shallow recession, and the effects of discretionary tax cuts being felt, the outstanding stock of Treasury securities is once again expanding. Moreover, while the risk of a war of unknown duration and expense attaches more than usual uncertainty to any forecast of future US deficits, there is little doubt that this expansion will continue for some time. The challenge posed by the gradual disappearance of the outstanding stock of the traditional investment vehicle no longer seems so pressing as it was two years ago. Managers of official foreign exchange reserves no longer face the gradual disappearance of the outstanding stock of their traditional investment vehicle as a given.The pressure to achieve returns in an environment of lower interest rates may nevertheless pose other challenges to reserve managers. It puts the spotlight on reserve managers’ choice of instrument. This note analyses the instruments in which central banks have invested their dollar reserves in recent years and poses three questions: How is the official dollar portfolio invested?How has the choice of instrument evolved over time? And how have recent events, including the return of recession and US fiscal deficits, lower Treasury yields and corporate defaults, altered its evolution?