Tilting Towards the Cosmopolitan Axis? Political Change in England and the 2017 General Election
Tilting Towards the Cosmopolitan Axis? Political Change in England and the 2017 General Election
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向国际大都会轴倾斜？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Stoker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Jennings;G. Stoker
2017年6月的大选揭示了英格兰政治轴心的持续倾斜，这一倾斜已经酝酿了很长时间。这并不是英国退欧的“重新调整”--因为公投更好地被视为居住在与全球增长密切相关的地区的公民和那些与全球增长无关的公民之间正在出现的长期分歧的症状。在这项分析中，我们探索了2005至2017年间英格兰选区层面的投票模式。在此期间，工党在城市地区(即大城市)的选票份额往往会上升，更年轻、更多样化、受教育程度更高的人口往往在“国际化”行业工作，而保守党的选票往往在人口密度较低的城镇和农村地区增加，人口老龄化和多元化程度较低。值得注意的是，工党还增加了在“无产阶级”和新兴服务业工人中所占比例较高的选区的选票--这与对一个失去了“落在后面”的政党的描述有些不同。在某种程度上，保守党和工党选举支持率的变化与英国退欧公投有关，这种关系远远早于公投之前，应该会继续重塑未来的英国政治。
The general election of June 2017 revealed a continued tilting of the political axis in England that has been long in the making. This was not a Brexit ‘realignment’—in that the vote is better seen as a symptom of a longer-term divide that is emerging between citizens residing in locations strongly connected to global growth and those who are not. In this analysis, we explore constituency-level patterns of voting in England between 2005 and 2017. Over this period, Labour's vote share has tended to rise in urban areas (that is, major cities), with younger and more diverse and more educated populations often working in ‘cosmopolitan’ industries, whereas the Conservative vote has tended to increase in less densely populated towns and rural areas, with older and less diverse populations. Significantly, Labour has also increased its vote in constituencies with a higher share of ‘precariat’ and emerging service workers—somewhat at odds with characterisation of a party that has lost the ‘left behind’. To the extent that changes in electoral support for the Conservatives and Labour are linked to the Brexit vote, the relationship far predates the referendum vote and should be expected to continue to reshape British politics in future.