The Saving Rate in Japan: Why it Has Fallen and Why it Will Remain Low
The Saving Rate in Japan: Why it Has Fallen and Why it Will Remain Low
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-2354.2008.00531.x
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发表时间：
2007-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Braun;Daisuke Ikeda;Douglas H. Joines
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Braun;Daisuke Ikeda;Douglas H. Joines
本文量化了替代冲击在解释最近日本储蓄率下降中的作用，并对其未来走势提供了一些预测。我们认为储蓄率的变化有三个不同的来源：生育率的变化、存活率的变化和技术的变化。使用可计算的动态OLG模型来探索这些因素的经验相关性。我们的模型成功地解释了储蓄率和其他总体变量的历史变化，包括税后实际利率、每名工人的工作时间和产出。模型预测表明，日本的储蓄率在未来几年将会低得多，不会恢复到1990年时的15%水平。
This paper quantifies the role of alternative shocks in accounting for the recent declines in the Japanese saving rate and provides some projections about its future course. We consider three distinct sources of variation in the saving rate: changes in fertility rates, changes in survival rates, and changes in technology. The empirical relevance of these factors is explored using a computable dynamic OLG model. Our model successfully explains historical variation in the saving rate and other aggregate variables including the after-tax real interest rate, hours per worker and output. Model projections indicate that the Japanese saving rate will be much lower in future years and will not recover to levels of 15 percent that were seen as recently as 1990.