Using environmental niche modelling to investigate abiotic predictors of crocodilian attacks on people
Using environmental niche modelling to investigate abiotic predictors of crocodilian attacks on people
复制标题
使用环境生态位模型研究鳄鱼攻击人类的非生物预测因子
DOI：
10.1017/s0030605319000681
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Simon Pooley
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Powell;Thomas M. M. Versluys;Jessica J. Williams;Sonia Tiedt;Simon Pooley
摘要鳄鱼广泛分布于热带和亚热带地区，有几种鳄鱼对人类生命构成严重威胁。这对人类安全和鳄鱼保护具有重要意义。了解鳄鱼袭击人类的驱动因素有助于最大限度地减少未来的袭击，并为冲突管理提供信息。鳄鱼的攻击在许多地区遵循季节性模式，但对攻击发生与细尺度同期环境条件之间的关系的分析有限。我们使用环境生态位模型的方法来探索南非和埃斯瓦蒂尼(前斯威士兰)的尼罗河鳄鱼和美国佛罗里达州的美洲扬子鳄对人类的攻击与非生物预测因子之间的关系。我们的结果表明，环境日温度是两种鳄鱼攻击发生的最重要的非生物时间预测因子，当日平均温度超过18℃时，攻击可能性显著增加，并在28℃时达到峰值。这种关系可能部分是由于人类在较温暖的天气中在水中和周围度过时间的倾向，但也是由于温度对鳄鱼捕食行为和生理的影响，特别是消化食物的能力。我们讨论了我们的发现可能有助于鳄鱼的管理，对人类的安全和保护都有好处，以及应用环境生态位模型来理解涉及外温和恒温的人与野生动物的冲突。
Abstract Crocodilians are distributed widely through the tropics and subtropics, and several species pose a substantial threat to human life. This has important implications for human safety and crocodilian conservation. Understanding the drivers of crocodilian attacks on people could help minimize future attacks and inform conflict management. Crocodilian attacks follow a seasonal pattern in many regions, but there has been limited analysis of the relationship between attack occurrence and fine-scale contemporaneous environmental conditions. We use methods from environmental niche modelling to explore the relationships between attacks on people and abiotic predictors at a daily temporal resolution for the Nile crocodile Crocodylus niloticus in South Africa and Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), and the American alligator Alligator mississippiensis in Florida, USA. Our results indicate that ambient daily temperature is the most important abiotic temporal predictor of attack occurrence for both species, with attack likelihood increasing markedly when mean daily temperatures exceed 18 °C and peaking at 28 °C. It is likely that this relationship is explained partially by human propensity to spend time in and around water in warmer weather but also by the effect of temperature on crocodilian hunting behaviour and physiology, especially the ability to digest food. We discuss the potential of our findings to contribute to the management of crocodilians, with benefits for both human safety and conservation, and the application of environmental niche modelling for understanding human–wildlife conflicts involving both ectotherms and endotherms.
DOI：
10.1002/joc.5086
发表时间：
2017-10-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Fick, Stephen E.;Hijmans, Robert J.
通讯作者：
Hijmans, Robert J.