Future Development of Contrail Cover, Optical Depth, and Radiative Forcing: Impacts of Increasing Air Traffic and Climate Change
Future Development of Contrail Cover, Optical Depth, and Radiative Forcing: Impacts of Increasing Air Traffic and Climate Change
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轨迹覆盖、光学深度和辐射强迫的未来发展：空中交通增加和气候变化的影响
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
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通讯作者：
R. Sausen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Marquart;M. Ponater;F. Mager;R. Sausen
摘要：本文利用ECHAM大气环流模型中发展的尾迹参数化方法，在考虑空中交通和飞机技术变化以及气候变化的情况下，研究了尾迹的未来发展。时间片模拟显示，全球年平均尾迹覆盖率从1992年的0.06%增加到2015年的0.14%，到2050年增加到0.22%。在北部温带地区，尾迹覆盖的增强主要是由航空的发展决定的。此外，在热带地区，尾迹覆盖高度受气候变化的影响。为了量化模式气候中的系统误差对尾迹覆盖的影响，还进行了离线诊断研究。这些研究表明，ECHAM模拟中对全球尾迹覆盖的估计被低估了约0.8-0.9倍。模式气候偏差的影响在热带纬度地区最为强烈。模拟尾迹辐射强迫的时间发展与总对流关系最为密切。
Abstract The future development of contrails is investigated considering changes in air traffic and aircraft technology as well as climate change by means of a contrail parameterization developed for the ECHAM general circulation model. Time slice simulations show an increase in global annual mean contrail cover from 0.06% in 1992, to 0.14% in 2015, and to 0.22% in 2050. In the northern extratropics, the enhancement of contrail cover is mainly determined by the growth of aviation. In the Tropics, contrail cover is, additionally, highly affected by climate change. In order to quantify the effect of systematic errors in the model climate on contrail cover, offline diagnostic studies are also performed. These studies suggest an underestimation of global contrail cover in the ECHAM simulations by a factor of about 0.8–0.9. The effect of the bias in the model climate is strongest in tropical latitudes. The temporal development of the simulated contrail radiative forcing is most closely related to total contrai...