Change in risk of Alzheimer disease over time
Change in risk of Alzheimer disease over time
复制标题
DOI：
10.1212/wnl.0b013e3181f0754f
复制
发表时间：
2010-08-31
期刊：
影响因子：
9.9
通讯作者：
Evans, D. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hebert, L. E.;Bienias, J. L.;Evans, D. A.
目的：评估阿尔茨海默病（AD）发病风险是否随时间变化。老年人口数量的增加将导致老年痴呆症患者数量的增加。对增长规模的预测是假设AD的风险是恒定的。方法：所有年龄在65岁或以上的混血儿，地理上确定的区域被邀请参加每3年一次的家庭访谈。从大约10,000名参与者中，分层随机选择样本进行详细的临床评估。在每个周期中，通过检查或认知功能测试获得高分的个体在前一个周期中被确定为无AD，并在随后的周期中进行抽样，以评估事件AD。对疾病的评估是结构化的，并且随着时间的推移是统一的。这些分析包括从1997年到2008年对1,695名受试者的突发疾病进行评估。结果：360名参与者发生AD。通过logistic回归分析评估疾病发生风险随时间的变化，包括评估日期和控制年龄、性别、教育程度、种族、从无疾病指定到疾病发生评估的时间间隔和样本设计。时间变量（年）无统计学意义（优势比= 0.970,95%可信区间= 0.902 ~ 1.044）。结论：评估日期与疾病发病率的零相关表明近期AD风险没有随时间变化，并支持AD预测的这一假设。神经病学(R) 2010；75:786 - 791
Objective: To assess whether the risk of incidence of Alzheimer disease (AD) varies over time. The increase in numbers of people at the oldest ages in the population will bring an increase in the number of people with AD. Projections of the size of the increase assume the risk of AD is constant.Methods: All persons age 65 or older in a biracial, geographically defined area were invited to participate in a home interview every 3 years. From the approximately 10,000 participants, stratified random samples were selected for detailed clinical evaluation. At each cycle, individuals determined free of AD in a previous cycle, either by examination or by high score on cognitive function tests, were sampled in the subsequent cycle for evaluation for incident AD. The evaluations for disease were structured and uniform across time. These analyses include 1,695 subjects evaluated for incident disease from 1997 through 2008.Results: AD developed in 360 participants. Change over time in risk of incident disease was assessed in logistic regression analyses including evaluation date and controlling for age, gender, education, race, interval from disease-free designation to evaluation for incident disease, and sample design. The time variable (in years) was not significant (odds ratio = 0.970, 95% confidence interval = 0.902 to 1.044).Conclusions: The null relation of evaluation date to disease incidence suggests no recent change in risk of AD over time, and supports this assumption for projections of AD. Neurology (R) 2010;75:786-791