Changes in significant and maximum wave heights in the Norwegian Sea
Changes in significant and maximum wave heights in the Norwegian Sea
复制标题
挪威海显着波高和最大波高的变化
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.12.010
复制
发表时间：
2014-02-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Quartly, G. D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feng, Xiangbo;Tsimplis, M. N.;Quartly, G. D.
本文分析了极地锋号海洋气象船在挪威海10年的有效波高（H-s）和最大波高（H-max）实测资料。30分钟船载波浪记录仪测得的H-max和H-s与理论波浪分布一致。H-max与H-s之间的线性回归斜率为1.53。H-s和H-max在2000-2009年期间都没有明显的变化趋势。这些数据与早期的观察结果相结合。1980—2009年H-s的长期变化趋势为2.72 +/- 0.88 cm/年。冬季平均H-s和H-max均与北大西洋涛动（NAO）指数相关。与NAO指数的相关性最高的是更频繁遇到的波高（第75百分位）。利用500年的NAO指数记录重建了与NAO指数相关的波场变率。H-s和H-max在500年期间的变化幅度分别高达1.42 m和3.10 m。所有30年重建波场段的趋势都低于1980-2009年观测的趋势。CMIP5气候模式在RCP85情景下的21世纪预估中，NAO指数没有显著变化，因此预计挪威海的平均和极端波场没有与NAO相关的变化。(C) 2013 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
This paper analyses 10 years of in-situ measurements of significant wave height (H-s) and maximum wave height (H-max) from the ocean weather ship Polarfront in the Norwegian Sea. The 30-minute Ship-Borne Wave Recorder measurements of H-max and H-s are shown to be consistent with theoretical wave distributions. The linear regression between H-max and H-s has a slope of 1.53. Neither H-s nor H-max show a significant trend in the period 2000-2009. These data are combined with earlier observations. The long-term trend over the period 1980-2009 in annual H-s is 2.72 +/- 0.88 cm/year. Mean H-s and H-max are both correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during winter. The correlation with the NAO index is highest for the more frequently encountered (75th percentile) wave heights. The wave field variability associated with the NAO index is reconstructed using a 500-year NAO index record. H-s and H-max are found to vary by up to 1.42 m and 3.10 m respectively over the 500-year period. Trends in all 30-year segments of the reconstructed wave field are lower than the trend in the observations during 1980-2009. The NAO index does not change significantly in 21st century projections from CMIP5 climate models under scenario RCP85, and thus no NAO-related changes are expected in the mean and extreme wave fields of the Norwegian Sea. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.