Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Through Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum
Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Through Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum
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通过模拟末次盛冰期评估共同体地球系统模型第二版的平衡气候敏感性
DOI：
10.1029/2020gl091220
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
DiNezio, Pedro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhu, Jiang;Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.;Brady, Esther C.;Poulsen, Christopher J.;Tierney, Jessica E.;Lofverstrom, Marcus;DiNezio, Pedro
在最新的耦合模式比较项目第6阶段，平衡气候敏感性（ECS）的上端已大幅增加，8个模式（截至撰写本文时）报告ECS为0.5°C。社区地球系统模型版本2 （CESM2）就是这样一个高ECS模型。本文利用CESM2对末次盛冰期（LGM）进行古气候模拟，以检验其高ECS是否真实。我们发现模拟的LGM全球平均温度下降超过11°C，大于代理数据估计的冷却和早期模式版本（CESM1）模拟的冷却。CESM2的大LGM冷却归因于最新大气模式中的强短波云反馈。我们的研究结果表明，CESM2的高ECS与LGM约束不相容，因此CESM2和具有类似高ECS的模式的预估未来变暖可能太大。
The upper end of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has increased substantially in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects phase 6 with eight models (as of this writing) reporting an ECS > 5°C. The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is one such high‐ECS model. Here we perform paleoclimate simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using CESM2 to examine whether its high ECS is realistic. We find that the simulated LGM global mean temperature decrease exceeds 11°C, greater than both the cooling estimated from proxies and simulated by an earlier model version (CESM1). The large LGM cooling in CESM2 is attributed to a strong shortwave cloud feedback in the newest atmosphere model. Our results indicate that the high ECS of CESM2 is incompatible with LGM constraints and that the projected future warming in CESM2, and models with a similarly high ECS, is thus likely too large.
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社区大气模型中气候敏感性和云反馈随变暖的增加
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Jiang Zhu;C. Poulsen
通讯作者：
C. Poulsen
CMIP6 模型中的高气候敏感性不受古气候支持
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Zhu, Jiang;Poulsen, Christopher J.;Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.
通讯作者：
Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.
影响因子：
--
作者：
Di Nezio, Pedro N.;Timmermann, Axel;Montenegro, Alvaro
通讯作者：
Montenegro, Alvaro
影响因子：
7.3
作者：
Nijsse, Femke J. M. M.;Cox, Peter M.;Williamson, Mark S.
通讯作者：
Williamson, Mark S.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
P. Holden;N. Edwards;K. Oliver;T. Lenton;R. Wilkinson
通讯作者：
P. Holden;N. Edwards;K. Oliver;T. Lenton;R. Wilkinson