UvA-DARE ( Digital Academic Repository ) How reliable is pooled analysis in political economy ? : the globalization-welfare state nexus revisited
UvA-DARE ( Digital Academic Repository ) How reliable is pooled analysis in political economy ? : the globalization-welfare state nexus revisited
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UvA-DARE（数字学术知识库）政治经济学中的汇总分析有多可靠？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Link
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kittel;H. Winner;Link
面板数据分析在比较政治经济学中已经非常流行。然而，为了从这些数据中得出有意义的推论，必须仔细解决规格和估计问题。本文的目的是证明各种陷阱，通常发生在应用经验的工作。为了说明这一点，我们参考了关于全球化与福利国家关系的辩论。我们重新审视了加勒特和米切尔（2001）的一个模型，这是这方面的一个领先研究。利用17个经合组织国家和1961年至1993年期间的数据集，他们发现证据表明，全球化和党派组成对公共活动的程度有重大影响。然而，由于它们在级别中应用动态规范，因此它们没有充分考虑数据的动态和球形性质。相比之下，我们提出了一个自回归模型的第一个差异，表现良好的统计方面。此外，我们明确关注的全球化福利国家关系的时间模式。实质上，我们发现有证据表明，政府支出主要是由国内经济状况驱动的。党派效应和国际经济环境都没有对公共支出产生重大影响。
Panel data analysis has become very popular in comparative political economy. However, in order to draw meaningful inferences from such data, one has to address specification and estimation issues carefully. This paper aims to demonstrate various pitfalls that typically occur in applied empirical work. To illustrate this, we refer to the debate on the globalization-welfare state nexus. We reexamine a model by Garrett and Mitchell (2001), a leading study in this regard. Utilizing a data set of 17 OECD countries and the time period 1961 to 1993, they find evidence that globalization and partisan composition have a significant impact on the extent of public activity. However, because they apply a dynamic specification in levels, they do not adequately take into account both the dynamic and spherical nature of the data. In contrast, we propose an autoregressive model in first differences that is shown to perform well in statistical terms. Further, we explicitly pay attention to the time pattern of the globalization-welfare state nexus. Substantively, we find evidence that government spending is primarily driven by the state of the domestic economy. Neither partisan effects nor the international economic environment have affected public expenditure considerably.