De-idealization by commentary: the case of financial valuation models
De-idealization by commentary: the case of financial valuation models
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评论的去理想化：金融估值模型的案例
作者：
E. Svetlova
是否有一种独特的方法来使模型去理想化？如果不是，减少模型与现实之间失真的可能方法有何不同？本文基于在金融市场进行的实证案例研究，讨论了流行的估值模型（贴现现金流模型）如何理想化现实以及市场参与者如何在具体市场情况下将其去理想化。与卡特赖特认为经济模型通常受到过度约束的观点相反，本文认为估值模型受到约束不足。这就是为什么放松简化假设和具体化不能作为去理想化方法的原因。该论文发现，金融市场参与者使用判断形式的评论来使模型去理想化。作为结论，提出了一个假设，即模型越不确定，叙事和其他语用元素在模型应用过程中发挥的作用就越大。
Is there a unique way to de-idealize models? If not, how might the possible ways of reducing the distortion between models and reality differ from each other? Based on an empirical case study conducted in financial markets, this paper discusses how a popular valuation model (the Discounted Cash Flow model) idealizes reality and how the market participants de-idealize it in concrete market situations. In contrast to Cartwright’s view that economic models are generally over-constrained, this paper suggests that valuation models are under-constrained. This serves as the reason why the relaxation of simplifying assumptions and concretization do not work as methods of de-idealization. The paper finds that financial market participants de-idealize models using commentary that takes the form of judgment. As a conclusion, a hypothesis is formulated that proposes that the more underdetermined the model is the bigger role narrative and other pragmatic elements play in the process of model application.