Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
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DOI：
10.1038/nature03089
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发表时间：
2004-12-02
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Allen, MR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stott, PA;Stone, DA;Allen, MR
2003年夏天可能是欧洲自公元1500年以来最热的一年（1-4），法国、德国和意大利报告了异常多的与热有关的死亡人数（5）。从简单的确定性意义上说，2003年的热浪是否是由外部对气候影响的改变（例如，大气中温室气体浓度的增加）引起的，这是一个不恰当的问题，因为几乎任何这样的天气事件都可能在未经改变的气候中偶然发生。然而，可以估计人类活动可能增加了这种热浪发生的风险（6-8）。在这里，我们使用这个概念框架来估计人类引起的温室气体和其他污染物的大气浓度增加的风险发生异常高的平均夏季温度在整个欧洲大陆的大区域的贡献。使用2003年超过的平均夏季温度阈值，但自1851年仪器记录开始以来没有其他年份，我们估计很可能（置信水平> 90%）（9）人类影响至少使超过该阈值的热浪风险增加了一倍。
The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest AD 1500(1-4), and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy(5). It is an ill-posed question whether the 2003 heatwave was caused, in a simple deterministic sense, by a modification of the external influences on climate-for example, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere-because almost any such weather event might have occurred by chance in an unmodified climate. However, it is possible to estimate by how much human activities may have increased the risk of the occurrence of such a heatwave(6-8). Here we use this conceptual framework to estimate the contribution of human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants to the risk of the occurrence of unusually high mean summer temperatures throughout a large region of continental Europe. Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level > 90%)(9) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold-magnitude.