The parametric hurricane rainfall model with moisture and its application to climate change projections
The parametric hurricane rainfall model with moisture and its application to climate change projections
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DOI：
10.1038/s41612-022-00308-9
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发表时间：
2022-11-04
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Bell, Michael M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kim, Dasol;Park, Doo-Sun R.;Bell, Michael M.
最初于2007年推出的参数飓风降雨模型（PHRAM）已被广泛用于预测和量化热带环旋诱导的降雨（TC降雨）。与全球气候模型相比，phram在计算上更有效，但是在气候变化的背景下，不能有效地利用PHRAM，因为它没有任何参数来捕获在变暖世界下对流层水蒸气的增加。这项研究开发了一种新模型，该模型将对流层水蒸气纳入phram框架，该框架为水分（PHRAMM）。与美国大陆上的TCS训练不同的是，PHRAMP经过训练，可以最佳地适合北太平洋（WNP）上的TC降雨。 PHRAMM可靠地模拟了当前气候下登陆过程中TC降雨量的径向谱图和累积降雨的空间分布，其预测技能比现有的统计和操作数值模型更好。使用PHRAMM，我们评估了TC强度和环境水分增加对未来气候中TC降雨变化的影响。 TC强度的增加会导致TC降雨在内部核心区域增加，但在外部区域减少，而环境水分增加会导致TC降雨在整个TC区域增加。根据TC强度增加和环境水分的两种影响，PHRAMM预计，WNP TC降雨在2-K下的内部核心区域可能会增加4.61-8.51％，在整个TC区域下的WNP TC降雨量可能会增加17.96-20.91％变暖场景。
The parametric hurricane rainfall model (PHRaM), firstly introduced in 2007, has been widely used to forecast and quantify tropicalcyclone-induced rainfall (TC rainfall). The PHRaM is much more computationally efficient than global climate models, but PHRaM cannot be effectively utilized in the context of climate change because it does not have any parameters to capture the increase of tropospheric water vapor under the warming world. This study develops a new model that incorporates tropospheric water vapor to the PHRaM framework, named as the PHRaM with moisture (PHRaMM). The PHRaMM is trained to best fit the TC rainfall over the western North Pacific (WNP) unlike the PHRaM trained with the TCs over the continental US. The PHRaMM reliably simulates radial profile of TC rainfall and spatial distribution of accumulated rainfall during landfall in the present climate with the better prediction skills than existing statistical and operational numerical models. Using the PHRaMM, we evaluated the impacts of TC intensity and environmental moisture increase on TC rainfall change in a future climate. An increased TC intensity causes TC rainfall to increase in the inner-core region but to decrease in the outer region, whereas an increased environmental moisture causes the TC rainfall to increase over the entire TC area. According to the both effects of increased TC intensity and environmental moisture, the PHRaMM projected that the WNP TC rainfall could increase by 4.61-8.51% in the inner-core region and by 17.96-20.91% over the entire TC area under the 2-K warming scenario.