House Price Bubbles in China
House Price Bubbles in China
复制标题
中国房价泡沫
DOI：
10.5296/rae.v6i1.4946
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发表时间：
2014-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Yufei Yuan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yu Ren;Cong Xiong;Yufei Yuan
本文以宏观经济和货币政策基本变量为向量，考察了1998年3月至2013年2月我国住宅市场投机泡沫的存在性。在过去的几年中，除了美国实施量化宽松政策外，我国也对资产市场使用了多种货币政策工具，如扩大货币供应量、降低基准利率和贷款利率等。这导致了2009年后中国发生恶性通货膨胀，房地产价格大幅上涨。由于真实的房地产行业的蓬勃发展，我们对房地产市场是否存在泡沫感兴趣。通过单位根检验和协整检验，我们发现我国房地产市场不存在理性泡沫。对房价负收益率的持续期依赖性检验表明，中国房地产市场不存在理性泡沫。总体而言，本文认为货币政策和宏观经济变量是影响房价上涨的重要因素。货币主义者也有必要考虑利率对房价的影响。
This paper uses a vector of macroeconomic and monetary policy fundamental variables to investigate the existence of speculative bubbles on national residential house market in China over the period from Mar.1998 to Feb.2013.In the past few years, except the quantitative easing policy was implemented in USA, many monetary policy instruments also have been used on the asset markets in China, such as expansionary of monetary supply and lower benchmark interest rate and lending rate. These led to the hyperinflation happened in China and property price increased dramatically after 2009. Because of the booming in the real estate industry, we are interested in whether there is a housing bubble existing in the market. Three sets of bubble attributes are examined, including unit root test and co-integration procedures, we find no evidence of rational bubbles in the national housing market. The tests for duration dependence in the negative returns on house prices suggest that China housing market is not affected by rational bubbles. Overall, this essay proposes monetary policy and macroeconomic variables are important factors for the increasing of housing prices. It is also necessary for monetarists to consider about the impact of interest rates on housing prices.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Costello, Greg;Fraser, Patricia;Groenewold, Nicolaas
通讯作者：
Groenewold, Nicolaas
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1341170
发表时间：
2009-01
期刊：
LSN: Empirical Studies (Topic)
影响因子：
--
作者：
John B. Taylor
通讯作者：
John B. Taylor
影响因子：
8
作者：
CHEN, NF
通讯作者：
CHEN, NF
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
ENGLE, RF
通讯作者：
ENGLE, RF
DOI：
10.17016/ifdp.2005.841
发表时间：
2005-09
期刊：
Social Science Research Network
影响因子：
--
作者：
Alan G. Ahearne;J. Ammer;Brian M. Doyle;Linda S. Kole;Robert F. Martin
通讯作者：
Alan G. Ahearne;J. Ammer;Brian M. Doyle;Linda S. Kole;Robert F. Martin