A Mixed-Method Approach to Determining Contact Matrices in the Cox's Bazar Refugee Settlement
A Mixed-Method Approach to Determining Contact Matrices in the Cox's Bazar Refugee Settlement
复制标题
确定考克斯巴扎尔难民安置区接触矩阵的混合方法
DOI：
10.1101/2022.11.22.22282641
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Walker J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Walker J
接触矩阵是年龄结构流行病模型中的一个重要组成部分，用于模拟疾病在人口亚群之间的传播。这些矩阵通常是使用资源密集型日记调查得出的，全球南方很少有这种矩阵，也很少有专门针对弱势群体的矩阵。特别是，没有接触矩阵存在的难民定居点的位置服务不足的流行病模型一般。在本文中，我们提出了一种新的，混合方法的方法来获得接触矩阵的人口，它结合了一个轻量级的，快速部署的调查与人口普查和行为数据的人口基于代理的模型。我们用这种方法来推导出第一套接触矩阵的考克斯的巴扎尔难民定居在孟加拉国。为了验证我们的方法，我们将其应用于英国人口，并将我们的衍生矩阵与使用传统方法收集的知名接触矩阵进行比较。我们的研究结果表明，我们的混合方法的方法成功地解决了传统的和基于代理的方法所面临的一些挑战，以获得接触矩阵。它还显示了在资源有限的环境中实施的潜力。因此，这项工作有助于实现一个更广泛的目标，即制定新的数据收集方法和机制，为难民和境内流离失所者定居点的疾病传播建模，并更好地为这些脆弱社区服务。
Contact matrices are an important ingredient in age-structured epidemic models to inform the simulated spread of the disease between subgroups of the population. These matrices are generally derived using resource-intensive diary-based surveys and few exist in the Global South or tailored to vulnerable populations. In particular, no contact matrices exist for refugee settlements—locations under-served by epidemic models in general. In this paper, we present a novel, mixed-method approach for deriving contact matrices in populations, which combines a lightweight, rapidly deployable survey with an agent-based model of the population informed by census and behavioural data. We use this method to derive the first set of contact matrices for the Cox’s Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh. To validate our approach, we apply it to the UK population and compare our derived matrices with well-known contact matrices collected using traditional methods. Our findings demonstrate that our mixed-method approach successfully addresses some of the challenges faced by traditional and agent-based approaches to deriving contact matrices. It also shows potential for implementation in resource-constrained environments. This work therefore contributes to a broader aim of developing new methods and mechanisms of data collection for modelling disease spread in refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements and better serving these vulnerable communities.