Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from state‐level data
Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from state‐level data
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DOI：
10.1002/jae.2800
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发表时间：
2020-10
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Haroon Mumtaz;Laura Sunder-Plassmann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Haroon Mumtaz;Laura Sunder-Plassmann
本文使用州一级的数据来估计联邦国防支出冲击对州真实的活动的影响。我们发现了适度强有力的证据，表明在经济衰退期间，一般州的财政乘数更大。然而，横截面上存在大量异质性。在金融摩擦程度较高、劳动力市场刚性较低的国家，支出冲击影响的非线性程度更大。相比之下，采矿业和农业占主导地位的国家往往在商业周期的各个阶段具有更相似的乘数。
This paper uses state-level data to estimate the effect of federal defense spending shocks on state real activity. We nd moderately strong evidence that for the average state the fiscal multiplier is larger during recessions. However, there is substantial heterogeneity across the cross-section. The degree of non-linearity in the effect of spending shocks is larger in states that are subject to a higher degree of financial frictions and lower labour market rigidity. In contrast states with a prevalence of mining and agricultural industries tend to have multipliers that are more similar across business cycle phases.