Dividend Policy and the Earned/Contributed Capital Mix: A Test of the Lifecycle Theory
Dividend Policy and the Earned/Contributed Capital Mix: A Test of the Lifecycle Theory
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股利政策和挣得/贡献资本组合：生命周期理论的检验
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.766086
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
René M. Stulz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. DeAngelo;L. Deangelo;René M. Stulz
与股息的生命周期理论一致，当留存收益占总股本（和总资产）的很大一部分时，支付股息的上市工业公司的比例很高，而当大多数股本是贡献而不是赚取时，支付股息的比例降至接近零。我们观察到，在控制盈利能力、增长、公司规模、杠杆、现金余额和股息历史的情况下，支付股息的决定与赚得/贡献资本组合之间存在高度显著的关系，这种关系也适用于股息的发放和不发放。在我们的回归中，盈利/贡献资本的组合在数量上比盈利能力和增长机会的衡量指标具有更大的影响。我们发现，留存收益为负的企业大幅增加（从1978年的11.8%上升到2002年的50.2%）。控制了赚得/贡献资本组合，从20世纪70年代中期到2002年，保留盈余为负的公司在支付股息的倾向上几乎没有变化，而那些赚得权益使其成为支付股息的合理候选人的公司倾向减少，是Fama和French（2001）的两倍。我们所有的证据都支持股息的生命周期理论，在该理论中，公司在该周期中的阶段是由其内部和外部资本的组合很好地代表的。
Consistent with a lifecycle theory of dividends, the fraction of publicly traded industrial firms that pays dividends is high when retained earnings are a large portion of total equity (and of total assets) and falls to near zero when most equity is contributed rather than earned. We observe a highly significant relation between the decision to pay dividends and the earned/contributed capital mix, controlling for profitability, growth, firm size, leverage, cash balances, and dividend history, a relation that also holds for dividend initiations and omissions. In our regressions, the mix of earned/contributed capital has a quantitatively greater impact than measures of profitability and growth opportunities. We document a massive increase in firms with negative retained earnings (from 11.8% of industrials in 1978 to 50.2% in 2002). Controlling for the earned/contributed capital mix, firms with negative retained earnings show virtually no change in their propensity to pay dividends from the mid-1970s to 2002, while those whose earned equity makes them reasonable candidates to pay dividends have a propensity reduction that is twice the overall reduction in Fama and French (2001). All our evidence supports the lifecycle theory of dividends, in which a firm's stage in that cycle is well-proxied by its mix of internal and external capital.