Industrial Production
Industrial Production
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工业生产
DOI：
10.1111/oets.78
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Mali Quintana
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Yardeni;Debbie Johnson;Mali Quintana
1941年的工业生产超过了美国历史上的任何一年。联邦储备指数年初为139点，到12月上升到168点，全年平均值为156点，比1940年（前一个峰值）高出四分之一，比1929年高出42%。今年前三个季度的扩张速度保持在一个快速的速度，但尽管需求不断增长，但关键原材料的短缺在最后几个月大大限制了前进的步伐。如上所述，年初的工业发展受到政府军备计划和由此产生的高消费收入水平的影响。然而，年中之后，前一种影响力开始占主导地位，1942年初，美国工业走上了全面参与世界武装斗争的道路。这样一个过程要求生产模式和流程发生巨大变化。这些活动开始于1940年，并在1941年继续进行。然而，最大的转变将在今年进行。在法国沦陷后的18个月里，武器生产能力和武器产量本身都有了很大的增长。与此同时，为实现1942年和1943年的宏伟目标，人们正在缓慢地进行准备工作。然而，在1941年期间增加的武器能力几乎完全是以新工厂的形式，而不是对现有设施的改造。这家工厂--20亿美元用于军备设施，10亿美元用于支持原材料和机械生产能力，加上近10亿美元用于民用消费品生产--构成了当年创纪录的资本形成的一个突出部分。武器输出及其所产生的大量资本形成，有助于将消费者购买力带到高峰水平。个人需求的增加主要是针对耐用消费品，结果是这些产品的产量在今年前三个季度非常大，即使与收入流有关。正是在最后几个月里，原材料短缺迫使这些物品的产量减少;到1942年初，新的军事计划指出，通过停止使用这些用途的材料，以及整个工业转为战时生产，几乎所有这些生产都将被淘汰。这样的发展不会扭转以耐用品形式增加产出比例的趋势，现代战斗机器的复杂要求创造了对耐用品的永不满足的需求。1929年，耐用品生产指数（1935 ~ 1939 =100）比非耐用品生产指数高出42%。在1937年，也就是30年代的高峰年，过剩幅度已经降低到15%;但在1941年，耐用品指数几乎又高出非耐用品指数的一半。在本年度，这两个员额的分离将进一步增加。1941年，非耐用品的产量比前一年增加了五分之一，这对这类产品来说是一个非常可观的增长。高消费者收入是主要原因，尽管用于军事和商业用途的非耐用品的购买也有所增加。
Industrial production in 1941 was larger than in any previous year of the Nation's history. The Federal Reserve index began the year at 139 and rose to 168 by December, with an average for the year of 156, a fourth more than in 1940 (the previous peak) and 42 percent above the 1929 level. Expansion was maintained at a rapid rate for the first 3 quarters of the year, but despite an ever-growing demand, shortages of key raw materials curtailed the pace of the advance very markedly in the final months. As suggested above, industrial developments at the first of the year were influenced both by the armament program of the Government and by the high level of consumer income it generated. After midyear, however, the former influence emerged dominant, and at the start of 1942 American industry was on the road to full enlistment in the world's armed struggle. Such a process required vast changes in the pattern and flow of production. These were begun in 1940 and continued in 1941. The greatest shift, however, is to be undertaken during the current year. In the 18 months following the fall of France, the capacity for producing arms as well as arms output itself was increased very greatly. At the same time, ground was being prepared slowly for the titanic objectives of 1942 and 1943. However, additions to arms capacity during 1941 were almost exclusively in the form of new plant rather than the conversion of existing facilities. This plant—-an outlay of 2 billion dollars for armament facilities, 1 billion on supporting raw material and machinery capacity, plus close to another billion for civilian consumer lines—formed a prominent part of the record capital formation carried out within the year. The arms output, with its resultant large volume of capital formation, was instrumental in carrying consumer purchasing power to peak levels. Increased demand on the part of individuals was directed in particular toward the consumer durables, with the result that output of these was extraordinarily heavy, even in relation to the income flow, during the first 3 quarters of the year. It was in the final months that the raw-material shortages forced output of these items to be curtailed; by the start of 1942 the new military program pointed to the impending elimination of virtually all such production through stoppage of materials for such use and the conversion of whole industries to war production. Such a development will not reverse the trend toward a larger proportion of output in the form of durable goods, for which the complex requirements of a modern fighting machine create an insatiable demand. In 1929, the index of durable-goods production (1935-39=100) stood 42 percent above the nondurable index. In 1937, the peak year of the thirties, the margin of excess had been cut to 15 percent; but in 1941, the durable-goods index was almost half again as high as that of the nondurables. The separation of the two will be further increased during the current year. The production of nondurables was one-fifth larger in 1941 than a year earlier—a very considerable expansion for this type of output. The high consumer income was mainly responsible for the advance, though purchases of nondurables for military and business use were also increased.