The economic returns of ending the AIDS epidemic as a public health threat
The economic returns of ending the AIDS epidemic as a public health threat
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DOI：
10.1016/j.healthpol.2018.11.007
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发表时间：
2019-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Stover, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lamontagne, Erik;Over, Mead;Stover, John
背景：2016年，各国就“到2030年结束艾滋病流行”的快速通道战略达成一致。快速通道战略的治疗和预防部分旨在显著减少新的艾滋病毒感染、与艾滋病有关的死亡和与艾滋病毒有关的歧视。这项研究评估了这一雄心勃勃的strategy.Methods的经济回报：我们估计的增量成本，效益和经济回报的快速通道方案在低收入和中等收入国家，相比，一个反事实定义为保持覆盖面艾滋病毒相关的服务在2015年的水平。收益是使用全收入法计算的，该方法同时评估收入和死亡率的变化，以及生产率法。结果：2017-2030年快速通道情景相对于恒定情景的增量成本为860亿美元或人均13.69美元。死亡率下降带来的增量效益按全部收入估值为人均88.14美元，相当于为所有国家投入的资源的6.44倍。这些投资回报因区域而异，亚太区域的回报最大，其次是东部和南部非洲。解释：在所有区域，快速道方法节省的额外生命年的经济和社会价值超过了其增量成本，这意味着这一结束艾滋病流行病的战略是一项合理的经济投资。(C)2018作者由爱思唯尔公司出版
Background: In 2016, countries agreed on a Fast-Track strategy to "end the AIDS epidemic by 2030". The treatment and prevention components of the Fast-Track strategy aim to markedly reduce new HIV infections, AIDS-related deaths and HIV-related discrimination. This study assesses the economic returns of this ambitious strategy.Methods: We estimated the incremental costs, benefits and economic returns of the Fast-Track scenario in low- and middle-income countries, compared to a counterfactual defined as maintaining coverage of HIV-related services at 2015 levels. The benefits are calculated using the full-income approach, which values both the changes in income and in mortality, and the productivity approach.Findings: The incremental costs of the Fast-Track scenario over the constant scenario for 2017-2030 represent US$86 billion or US$13.69 per capita. The full-income valuation of the incremental benefits of the decrease in mortality amounts to US$88.14 per capita, representing 6.44 times the resources invested for all countries. These returns on investment vary by region, with the largest return in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by Eastern and Southern Africa. Returns using the productivity approach are smaller but ranked similarly across regions.Interpretation: In all regions, the economic and social value of the additional life-years saved by the Fast-Track approach exceeds its incremental costs, implying that this strategy for ending the AIDS epidemic is a sound economic investment. (C) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.