A Decade of Lessons Learned from the 2011 Tohoku‐Oki Earthquake
A Decade of Lessons Learned from the 2011 Tohoku‐Oki Earthquake
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DOI：
10.1029/2020rg000713
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发表时间：
2021-05
影响因子：
25.2
通讯作者：
Naoki Uchida;R. Bürgmann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Naoki Uchida;R. Bürgmann
2011年东北冲地震是世界上记录最好的地震之一。在这一毁灭性事件之后，重要的是要从完整的记录中吸取教训。我们描述的知识状态的巨型逆冲断层地震的生成过程中，地震前，和什么已经学到的十年以来的历史事件。在2011年之前，有许多研究表明，在日本东北部的大规模逆冲断层地震的潜力，从大地测量学，地质学，地震学，地貌学和古地震学，但每个领域的结果不足以使灾害的共识评估。在地震发生前，人们认识到板间耦合的短暂松动和地震活动的增加，但没有引起警报。自主震以来，后续研究（1）证明了破裂发生在具有大的板间滑动赤字的地区，（2）建立了大的近海沟同震滑动，（3）检查了与同震滑动相关的构造异常和断层带材料，（4）澄清了M3.9地震的历史和古地震复发，（5）确定了各种可能的前兆。研究还揭示了同震破裂、余震、慢震和无震后滑的不均匀分布，以及持久的粘弹性响应，共同构成了复杂的巨逆冲断层地震旋回。鉴于这些科学进步，现在可以更准确地确定即将发生的大地震的地震危险性增加，尽管我们不相信这样的事件可以有信心地预测。
The 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku‐oki earthquake is one of the world's best‐recorded ruptures. In the aftermath of this devastating event, it is important to learn from the complete record. We describe the state of knowledge of the megathrust earthquake generation process before the earthquake, and what has been learned in the decade since the historic event. Prior to 2011, there were a number of studies suggesting the potential of a great megathrust earthquake in NE Japan from geodesy, geology, seismology, geomorphology, and paleoseismology, but results from each field were not enough to enable a consensus assessment of the hazard. A transient unfastening of interplate coupling and increased seismicity were recognized before the earthquake, but did not lead to alerts. Since the mainshock, follow‐up studies have (1) documented that the rupture occurred in an area with a large interplate slip deficit, (2) established large near‐trench coseismic slip, (3) examined structural anomalies and fault‐zone materials correlated with the coseismic slip, (4) clarified the historical and paleoseismic recurrence of M∼9 earthquakes, and (5) identified various kinds of possible precursors. The studies have also illuminated the heterogeneous distribution of coseismic rupture, aftershocks, slow earthquakes and aseismic afterslip, and the enduring viscoelastic response, which together make up the complex megathrust earthquake cycle. Given these scientific advances, the enhanced seismic hazard of an impending great earthquake can now be more accurately established, although we do not believe such an event could be predicted with confidence.