Development Accounting and International Trade
Development Accounting and International Trade
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发表时间：
2015-08
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通讯作者：
Hirokazu Ishise
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作者：
Hirokazu Ishise
发展核算表明，跨国收入差异的很大一部分归因于全要素生产率（TFP）的差异，但全要素生产率差异的来源尚未得到很好的理解。本文考虑国际贸易的作用来解释TFP的跨国收入差异。本文运用多国李嘉图贸易模型，将贸易成本和贸易政策因素与纯技术因素区分开来。在基线参数化的情况下，我的模型显示，传统的TFP度量高估了30%的基本生产率差异。然后，我展示了贸易成本对福利的显著影响：欧洲小国由于靠近更大、生产率更高的邻国，福利提高了10-15%，而大洋洲和南部非洲国家由于地处偏远，福利降低了10-20%。贸易政策也有影响：关税使福利减少1-10%，而自由贸易协定使福利增加1-5%。如果不考虑一般均衡效应，这些贸易收益就小得多。
Development accounting shows that a significant part of cross-country income differences is attributed to differences in total factor productivity (TFP), but the sources of TFP differences are not well understood. This paper considers the role of international trade to explain cross-country income differences in TFP. By using a multi-country Ricardian trade model, I distinguish trade costs and trade policy factors from a pure technology factor in TFP. Under the baseline parameterization, my model shows that conventional TFP measures overestimate fundamental productivity differences by 30%. I then show that trade costs significantly influence welfare: small European countries enjoy 10-15% higher welfare through their proximity to larger and more productive neighboring countries, while Oceanian and countries in southern Africa suffer from 10-20% lower welfare due to their remoteness. Trade policy also has impacts: tariffs decrease welfare by 1-10%, while free-trade agreements increase welfare by 1-5%. These gains from trade are considerably smaller if general equilibrium effects are not considered.