Dynamic failure analysis of renewable energy systems in the remote offshore environments
Dynamic failure analysis of renewable energy systems in the remote offshore environments
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DOI：
10.1002/qre.2805
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发表时间：
2020-11
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
S. Nitonye;Sidum Adumene;Barivure Marvin Sigalo;C. U. Orji;A. K. Le-ol
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Nitonye;Sidum Adumene;Barivure Marvin Sigalo;C. U. Orji;A. K. Le-ol
为了在动态和不确定的海洋环境中对海洋可再生能源系统进行有效的完整性管理，了解失效动力学至关重要。海洋/海上可再生能源基础设施的投资成本以及能源生产失败和损失带来的相关成本需要一种动态和适应性强的预测监测方法。本文提出了一种集成的多状态纯生-纯死-马尔可夫-净利润值模型，用于海上汽轮机子系统故障分析及其基于成本的后果。该集成模型捕获了海上涡轮机子系统的动态故障状态及其经济含义，这是由于考虑期间的能量损失和停机成本造成的。该模型采用相型指数分布来描述失效的单调状态。该方法以海上风力发电机齿轮箱为例进行了验证，并捕获了系统的动态状态及其失效机制。子部件劣化的累积效应使变速箱的性能在运行的前2年内下降了35%以上。
For effective integrity management of marine renewable energy systems in the dynamic and uncertain ocean environments, understanding the failure dynamics is crucial. The cost of investment in marine/offshore renewable energy infrastructures and the associated cost due to failure and loss of energy production necessitate a predictive monitoring methodology that is dynamic and adaptive. This paper presents an integrated multi‐state pure‐birth‐pure‐death Markovian‐net profit value model for the offshore turbine subsystem failure analysis and its cost‐based consequences. The integrated model captures the offshore turbine subsystem's dynamic failure states and its economic implications due to the cost of energy loss and downtime for the period under consideration. The model applies a phase‐type exponential distribution to describe the monotonic state of failure. The methodology is demonstrated with an offshore wind turbine gearbox, and it captures the dynamic state of the system and its failure mechanisms. The cumulative effect of the subelements deterioration decreases the gearbox performance by over 35% within the first 2 years of operation.