Disputes, Democracies, and Dependencies: A Reexamination of the Kantian Peace
Disputes, Democracies, and Dependencies: A Reexamination of the Kantian Peace
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争端、民主和依附：对康德和平的重新审视
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Xun Cao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Ward;Randolph M. Siverson;Xun Cao
人们普遍认为，在拥有高贸易水平和广泛参与国际组织的民主国家中，军事化的国家间争端不太可能发生。我们在结合了各国之间高度依赖的模式的背景下，重新审视了康德和平文献的这一广泛发现。基于样本内统计检验以及样本外预测性交叉验证，我们发现文献中经常引用的结果存在过度拟合的问题，不能被描述为确定民主、贸易和国际政府组织影响国际冲突的基本结构。我们的结论是，这篇文献中报道的大部分统计关联显然源于三个组成部分：(1)地理上的接近，(2)具有相同发起者或目标的军事化国家间争端之间的依赖，以及(3)这些二元数据中的高阶依赖。一旦这些变量被纳入，与康德和平三足鼎立相关的协变量就失去了大部分的统计能力。我们确实发现，联合民主水平越高，卷入军事化国家间争端的可能性就越低。我们发现，尽管具有很高的统计意义和假定的实质性重要性，但代表康德三脚架的变量没有一个与任何实质性的预测能力有关。
Militarized interstate disputes are widely thought to be less likely among democratic countries that have high levels of trade and extensive participation in international organizations. We reexamine this broad finding of the Kantian peace literature in the context of a model that incorporates the high degree of dependency among countries. Based on in-sample statistical tests, as well as out-of-sample, predictive cross-validation, we find that results frequently cited in the literature are plagued by overfitting and cannot be characterized as identifying the underlying structure through which international conflict is influenced by democracy, trade, and international governmental organizations. We conclude that much of the statistical association typically reported in this literature apparently stems from three components: (1) geographical proximity, (2) dependence among militarized interstate disputes with the same initiator or target, and (3) the higher-order dependencies in these dyadic data. Once these are incorporated, covariates associated with the Kantian peace tripod lose most of their statistical power. We do find that higher levels of joint democracy are associated with lower probabilities of militarized interstate dispute involvement. We find that despite high statistical significance and putative substantive importance, none of the variables representing the Kantian tripod is associated with any substantial degree of predictive power.