Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease - Model intercomparison
Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease - Model intercomparison
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tvjl.2008.11.011
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发表时间：
2010-03-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Paton, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gloster, John;Jones, Andrew;Paton, David
口蹄疫病毒(FMDV)通过动物间直接接触、动物产品(奶、肉和精液)、人或混合物的机械传播和空中传播传播，每种机制的相对重要性取决于特定的暴发特征。已经开发了大气扩散模型来评估口蹄疫病毒在一些国家的空气传播，包括英国、丹麦、澳大利亚、新西兰、美国和加拿大。这些模型在2008年由动物健康研究所/英国气象局主办的研讨会上进行了比较。每个模型师都被提供了关于1967年英国汉普郡口蹄疫爆发的数据，并被要求预测口蹄疫病毒通过空中传播的路线。研讨会和随后的建模工作产生了一些关键问题：(1)总的来说，所有模型都预测了危险牲畜的相似方向，其余大部分差异与所使用的气象数据的差异密切相关；(2)确定受感染场所的准确事件序列非常重要，特别是在病毒排放期间气象条件变化很大的情况下；(3)对病毒释放、环境命运和空气传播感染易感性的假设的不同，可能会大大改变顺风向风险区的大小和位置。讲习班上比较的所有大气传播模型都可用于评估口蹄疫病毒通过风传播的情况，并向在疾病爆发时负责作出控制和根除决定的人提供科学建议。皇冠版权所有(C)2008由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route, with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to assess airborne spread of FMDV in a number of countries, including the UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, USA and Canada. These models were compared at a Workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office in 2008. Each modeller was provided with data relating to the 1967 outbreak of FMD in Hampshire, UK, and asked to predict the spread of FMDV by the airborne route.A number of key issues emerged from the Workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all models predicted similar directions for livestock at risk, with much of the remaining differences strongly related to differences in the meteorological data used; (2) determination of an accurate sequence of events on the infected premises is highly important, especially if the meteorological conditions vary substantially during the virus emission period; (3) differences in assumptions made about virus release, environmental fate and susceptibility to airborne infection can substantially modify the size and location of the downwind risk area. All of the atmospheric dispersion models compared at the Workshop can be used to assess windborne spread of FMDV and provide scientific advice to those responsible for making control and eradication decisions in the event of an outbreak of disease. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.