Supply chain capacity and outsourcing decisions: the dynamic interplay of demand and supply uncertainty
Supply chain capacity and outsourcing decisions: the dynamic interplay of demand and supply uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1023/a:1014924611072
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发表时间：
2002-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Milner, JM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kouvelis, P;Milner, JM
我们研究了多阶段供应链中需求和供应不确定性在产能和外包决策中的相互作用。我们考虑一个公司的投资在两个阶段的供应链（阶段1模型的“核心”活动的公司，而阶段2是“非核心”活动）。公司在这两个阶段投资，以最大限度地提高多期，贴现利润。我们考虑了非平稳随机需求如何影响外包决策。我们还考虑了当市场对公司的投资做出反应时，投资水平如何受到非平稳随机供给的影响。我们描述了我们模型的单期和多期版本的最优产能投资决策，并专注于供需不确定性的变化如何影响外包的程度。我们发现，随着市场对公司投资的反应性增加，对外包的依赖一般会增加。虽然更大的供应和更大的需求对投资有预期的影响，但可变性的减少并不那么直接。更大的供应不确定性增加了对纵向一体化的需求，而更大的需求不确定性增加了对外包的依赖。在多期模型中，我们发现，基于需求或供给变化的能力调整的性质遵循单期模型的比较静态，尽管外包是否增加或减少取决于调整能力的成本。
We study the interplay of demand and supply uncertainty in capacity and outsourcing decisions in multi-stage supply chains. We consider a firm's investment in two stages of a supply chain (Stage 1 models the "core" activities of the firm, while Stage 2 are the "non-core" activities). The firm invests in these two stages in order to maximize the multi-period, discounted profit. We consider how non-stationary stochastic demand affects the outsourcing decisions. We also consider how investment levels are affected by non-stationary stochastic supply when the market responds to the firm's investments. We characterize the optimal capacity investment decisions for the single- and multi-period versions of our model and focus on how changes in supply and demand uncertainty affect the extent of outsourcing. We find that as the responsiveness of the market to investments made by the firm increases, the reliance on outsourcing generally increases. While greater supply and greater demand have the expected effect on investments, decreases in variability are not as straightforward. Greater supply uncertainty increases the need for vertical integration while greater demand uncertainty increases the reliance on outsourcing. In the multi-period model, we find that the nature of adjustments in capacity based on changes in demand or supply follows from the comparative statics of the single-period model, although whether outsourcing increases or decreases depends on the costs of adjusting capacity.