From Taylor's Rule to Bernanke's Temporary Price Level Targeting
From Taylor's Rule to Bernanke's Temporary Price Level Targeting
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从泰勒规则到伯南克的临时物价水平目标
DOI：
10.17016/feds.2018.051
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. López
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Hebden;D. López
伯南克将前瞻性指引整合到传统工具规则中的策略预计，有效下限（ELB）事件可能成为定期发生的一部分，货币政策应该认识到这种可能性（伯南克（2017 a）;伯南克（2017 b））。伯南克的第一个建议是一种灵活的临时价格水平目标（TPLT），其中较低的长期政策路径是通过规定？影子利率？这个影子利率解释了通货膨胀和产出相对于外生趋势的累积不足，政策利率保持在ELB，直到联合不足得到弥补。伯南克的第二个建议只是将ELB事件开始以来的累积通胀缺口直接添加到标准的泰勒规则中。通货膨胀率与2%目标之间的这种累积差距可以用价格水平与每年增长2%的价格水平目标之间的偏差来重新表述。我们使用FRB/US模型的一个小版本来评估这些策略的性能，我们称之为伯南克的TPLT规则。然后，我们优化这些规则，计算有效的政策边界，跟踪最好的（最小）可获得的组合的产出和通货膨胀波动给定的有效下限约束的政策利率。结果表明，伯南克的规则，通过稳定通货膨胀和失业率在严重的衰退期间，提供了更好的宏观经济结果比大多数其他规则在文献中考虑（包括泰勒（1993）和泰勒（1999））。在这些TPLT策略下，当政策利率对通胀不足做出更好的反应时，通胀低于目标的可能性会降低，同时失业率也会降低。然而，经济过热的可能性增加，通货膨胀率暂时高于目标，失业率较低。
Bernanke's strategies for integrating forward guidance into conventional instrument rules anticipate that effective lower bound (ELB) episodes may become part a regular occurrence and that monetary policy should recognize this likelihood (Bernanke (2017a); Bernanke (2017b)). Bernanke's first proposal is a form of flexible temporary price level targeting (TPLT), in which a lower-for-longer policy path is prescribed through a ?shadow rate?. This shadow rate accounts for cumulative shortfalls in inflation and output relative to exogenous trends, and the policy rate is kept at the ELB until the joint shortfall is made up. Bernanke's second proposal adds only the cumulative inflation shortfall since the beginning of an ELB episode directly to an otherwise standard Taylor rule. This cumulative shortfall in inflation from the 2 percent objective can be restated in terms of deviations of the price level from a price level target that increases at 2 percent annually. We evaluate the performance of these strategies, which we call Bernanke's TPLT rules, using a small version of the FRB/US model. We then optimize these rules, computing efficient policy frontiers that trace out the best (minimum) obtainable combinations of output and inflation volatility given the effective lower bound constraint on the policy rate. The results suggest that Bernanke's rules give better macroeconomic outcomes than most of the other rules considered in the literature (including Taylor (1993) and Taylor (1999)) by stabilizing inflation and unemployment during severe recessions. Under these TPLT strategies, when the policy rate is made more responsive to shortfalls in inflation, the the likelihood of below-target inflation occurring alongside high unemployment rates decreases. However, the probability of an overheated economy, with temporarily above-target inflation and low unemployment rate, increases.